XGID=-aA-B-DC--b--D---Abc-bcb--:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 124 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aA-B-DC--b--D---Abc-bcb--:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 124 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11

After the obvious 6/5(2), I elected to hit with 2/1*. But O's
blot is not at the edge of our prime, so 2/1* doesn't accomplish
much. On the other hand, 13/12(2) creates another point to help
contain O's checkers, which is important because X is well behind
in the pip count.

What if X didn't have 13/12(2) available for his remaining aces?
See the variant below for one example.

1. Rollout¹ 13/12(2) 6/5(2) eq:+0.100
Player: 55.64% (G:10.47% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 44.36% (G:20.54% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.085..+0.114) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/11 6/5(2) eq:-0.005 (-0.105)
Player: 52.85% (G:9.91% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 47.15% (G:24.51% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.017..+0.007) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/5 2/1* eq:-0.009 (-0.109)
Player: 51.61% (G:9.91% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 48.39% (G:17.83% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.021..+0.004) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/5(2) eq:-0.016 (-0.116)
Player: 52.39% (G:9.63% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 47.61% (G:22.52% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.027..-0.006) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-aA-B-DD--b--C---Abc-bcb--:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11

1. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/5 2/1* eq:+0.177
Player: 55.87% (G:10.98% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 44.13% (G:14.79% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.165..+0.190) - [99.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/5(2) eq:+0.150 (-0.027)
Player: 56.18% (G:10.69% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 43.82% (G:19.12% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.140..+0.161) - [0.1%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)