"
peps...@gmail.com" <
pepstein5@gmail.com> writes:
XGID=-BEABCB------------caebba-:1:1:1:00:7:7:0:11:10
X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
Score is X:7 O:7 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 50 O: 54 X-O: 7-7/11
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Let's see. If you redouble, it will be for the match for both
players. In this case the take point is the match equity after a pass
(one of the most important rules to memorize in match play), so we need
to calculate the match equity at -4/-2. Turner formula says
50 - (24/4 + 3)*(4-2) = 32 %
Pip count is 50 versus 54, adjusted 50 + 3 (stack on 2) + 1 (less
checkers off) = 54 versus 54 (no adjustments needed). The Isight method
gives
80 - 54/3 + 2*(54 - 54) = 62 %
winning chances for you, so 38 % for your opponent, whose take point is
32 %. Normally you want to double close to your opponents take point, especially if you are far away from a last roll situation. Not
sure. Calculating the doubling point may help to see where we are in the window. The doubling point is
risk/(risk+reward)
and risk is match equity at -4/-2 minus match equity at -4/0. At -4/-2
you have 32 %, see above. At -4/0 you have 0 %. So you risk 32 %. Now
the reward, which is the match equity an 0/-4 minus match equity at
-2/-4. At 0/-4 you have 100 %, at -2/-4 you have 68 %, see above. So the
reward is 32 %. Your doubling point is 32/(32+32) = 50 %. I would
double, and the take is clear.
Best regards
Axel
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