• PoH and then?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Feb 12 09:36:36 2024
    XGID=a---BaCAD--A-----fbbc-BAA-:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O X X X |
    | O O | | O O X |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | |
    | 6 | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X | +---+
    | X | | X X | | 2 |
    | X X X | | X O X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 167 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 11

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Feb 14 08:38:46 2024
    XGID=a---BaCAD--A-----fbbc-BAA-:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O X X X |
    | O O | | O O X |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | |
    | 6 | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X | +---+
    | X | | X X | | 2 |
    | X X X | | X O X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 167 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 11

    After 7/5* 6/5, I thought I need to step up to the edge of the prime
    with 22/21, but XG disagrees strongly.

    1. Rollout¹ 8/5* 6/5 eq:+0.615
    Player: 62.40% (G:20.95% B:0.98%)
    Opponent: 37.60% (G:11.83% B:0.64%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.602..+0.628) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 22/21 7/5* 6/5 eq:+0.452 (-0.163)
    Player: 57.34% (G:18.96% B:0.72%)
    Opponent: 42.66% (G:13.07% B:0.94%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.439..+0.465) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 23/22 7/5* 6/5 eq:+0.412 (-0.202)
    Player: 55.74% (G:18.85% B:0.76%)
    Opponent: 44.26% (G:12.96% B:0.53%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.401..+0.424) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 22/21(2) 8/7 6/5* eq:+0.403 (-0.212)
    Player: 57.38% (G:16.70% B:0.72%)
    Opponent: 42.62% (G:15.23% B:1.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.386..+0.419) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=a---BaCAD--A----bdbbc-BAA-:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O X X X |
    | O O O | | O O X |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X | +---+
    | X | | X X | | 2 |
    | X X X | | X O X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 167 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 11

    1. Rollout¹ 22/21(2) 8/7 6/5* eq:-0.096
    Player: 42.41% (G:11.02% B:0.51%)
    Opponent: 57.59% (G:21.36% B:1.43%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.109..-0.083) - [99.9%]

    2. Rollout¹ 8/5* 6/5 eq:-0.125 (-0.029)
    Player: 40.30% (G:12.42% B:0.72%)
    Opponent: 59.70% (G:20.53% B:1.03%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.138..-0.112) - [0.1%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)