• 44 is usually lucky but this one's just average

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Feb 10 17:42:52 2024
    XGID=-BBbBBB---AAA--bB-b--bcbb-:2:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X O | | O O O O | +---+
    | O X O | | O O O O | | 4 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X O X X |
    | X X X | | X X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 101 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, O own cube
    X to play 44

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Feb 13 10:20:38 2024
    XGID=-BBbBBB---AAA--bB-b--bcbb-:2:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X O | | O O O O | +---+
    | O X O | | O O O O | | 4 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X O X X |
    | X X X | | X X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 101 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, O own cube
    X to play 44

    We have a board advantage here, but O still has a four-point board,
    so I didn't like leaving more shots than necessary. But XG wants to
    leave a blot on the 16pt, which I still find surprising.

    1. Rollout¹ 16/8 12/8 10/6 eq:+0.374
    Player: 70.90% (G:9.32% B:0.39%)
    Opponent: 29.10% (G:3.68% B:0.08%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.369..+0.379) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 12/4 10/2 eq:+0.308 (-0.066)
    Player: 68.34% (G:7.50% B:0.19%)
    Opponent: 31.66% (G:2.43% B:0.04%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.303..+0.313) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 16/12(2) 10/2 eq:+0.294 (-0.080)
    Player: 68.38% (G:5.71% B:0.24%)
    Opponent: 31.62% (G:2.13% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.289..+0.299) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 16/8(2) eq:+0.282 (-0.092)
    Player: 68.52% (G:7.92% B:0.22%)
    Opponent: 31.48% (G:5.89% B:0.22%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.277..+0.287) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 16/12(2) 11/7 10/6 eq:+0.267 (-0.107)
    Player: 66.72% (G:7.63% B:0.26%)
    Opponent: 33.28% (G:2.32% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.262..+0.272) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-BBbBBB---AAA--bB-bc--bbb-:2:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X O | | O O O O | +---+
    | O X O | | O O O O | | 4 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X O X X |
    | X X X | | X X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 108 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, O own cube
    X to play 44

    1. Rollout¹ 16/8 12/8 10/6 eq:+0.309
    Player: 68.62% (G:10.98% B:0.54%)
    Opponent: 31.38% (G:6.43% B:0.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.303..+0.315) - [85.1%]

    2. Rollout¹ 16/12(2) 10/2 eq:+0.305 (-0.004)
    Player: 68.86% (G:5.35% B:0.14%)
    Opponent: 31.14% (G:3.38% B:0.05%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.298..+0.311) - [14.9%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)