• Hit or not? 2

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Feb 4 11:49:49 2024
    XGID=-a--b-EBB-B-bD---a-bcbaa--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X X X | | X O |
    | O X X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 132 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 54

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Feb 7 09:29:30 2024
    XGID=-a--b-EBB-B-bD---a-bcbaa--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X X X | | X O |
    | O X X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 132 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 54

    To get XG to hit, I had to make a significant change to the position:
    moving a spare from the midpoint and changing the roll to 53.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/2 eq:+0.347
    Player: 60.75% (G:7.42% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 39.25% (G:11.52% B:0.20%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.333..+0.362) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:+0.240 (-0.107)
    Player: 57.96% (G:9.79% B:0.67%)
    Opponent: 42.04% (G:13.93% B:0.32%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.228..+0.253) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/1* eq:+0.183 (-0.164)
    Player: 57.04% (G:9.70% B:0.53%)
    Opponent: 42.96% (G:15.66% B:0.42%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.169..+0.197) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a--b-ECB-B-bC---a-bcbaa--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X X | | X O |
    | O X X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 126 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 53

    1. Rollout¹ 13/10 6/1* eq:+0.476
    Player: 64.36% (G:7.03% B:0.24%)
    Opponent: 35.64% (G:9.20% B:0.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.462..+0.489) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/3 eq:+0.391 (-0.085)
    Player: 62.31% (G:7.64% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 37.69% (G:10.81% B:0.22%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.379..+0.403) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)