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  • Re: I assessed a position correctly

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Mon Jan 29 09:07:20 2024
    On 1/28/2024 10:57 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Obviously, it makes all the difference in the world that I usually have a return shot if hit.

    Your opponent's blot is certainly relevant, but I think the primary consideration is how close the race is.

    ---------
    Variant 1
    ---------

    XGID=aBCCBBB------------a---cc-:1:-1:1:62:9:9:0:11:10

    Score is X:9 O:9 11 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O | +---+
    | | | O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X X X X |
    | | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 47 O: 40 X-O: 9-9/11
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 62

    1. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/Off eq:+0.281
    Player: 64.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 35.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.279..+0.283) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 6/Off 2/Off eq:+0.273 (-0.008)
    Player: 63.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 36.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.271..+0.275) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
    Search interval: Large

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---------
    Variant 2
    ---------

    XGID=aBCCBBB----------------cc-:1:-1:1:62:9:9:0:11:10

    Score is X:9 O:9 11 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X X X X |
    | | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 47 O: 34 X-O: 9-9/11
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 62

    1. Rollout¹ 6/Off 2/Off eq:-0.077
    Player: 46.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 53.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.001 (-0.078..-0.076) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/Off eq:-0.097 (-0.020)
    Player: 45.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 54.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.001 (-0.098..-0.095) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
    Search interval: Large

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

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