On 2/8/2024 1:38 AM, Axel Reichert wrote:
MK <playbg-rgb@yahoo.com> writes:
... mutant that randomly doubles and/or takes but never drops,
It can recycle the 4,096 cube limit multiple times In my first
session of 100 games the cube got as high as 2^34 = 17,179,869,184
Welcome to St. Petersburg! I assume that you also allowed beavers,
possibly unlimited?
Only 2 consecutive beavers, (Noo-BG default setting), but with
cube recycling beyond the 4096 limit and games lasting longer
due to mutant not dropping, beaver-raccoon sequences happened
enough time to end up in Petropavlovsk, Kamchatskly... :)
guesses from you guys about what percentage of the games the
mutant will win and how many points each side will win
The percentage will be below 50 %, probably below 40 %.
If you are talking about the number of games won/lost, I didn't
count since that doesn't matter at all in money games, where the
object is to win more points (money) than games, by demonstrating
better "cube skill".
The points won will be essentially large random numbers due to
the Petersburg paradox.
The equities aren't undefined, if that's what you are getting at,
but humanly incomprehensible because of astronomical cube values.
When I posted about this in Noo-BG group, I was told I may need
to run hundreds of thousand or even a million games, in order to
get meaningful results but now I'm thinking if ten million will
be enough.
I run my experiments in chunks of 1,000 games so that I can save
them in reasonable sgf file sizes. For this experiment, I ran
30,000 games with mutant winning 549,877,108,651 against bot's
55,937,020,736, i.e. 90.7666365% in one batch and 80,937,311
against bot's 18,014,435,569,901,100, i.e. 0.0000004%
This is not an experiment I originally intended to do bot done
anyway just out of curiosity. Mutant winning as little as 2-3%
would help my argument but there is no practical way to finish
this experiment. I'm a potato counter. I don't trust math and
mirrors extrapolations. Thus, I will abandon this experiment
and won't spend anymore time on it.
It was fun and interesting to see how high the cube could go in
a single game if it wasn't arbitrarily limited at 1,024 or 4,096.
And also this will not stabilize if you run longer sessions,
but only get worse.
I don't agree but maybe I don't understand what you mean? I'd
argue that it will eventually stabilize but I have no idea of
how long of a session may be needed for that to happen.
I'm continuing with my other experiments and truly enjoying the
process. In fact, while doing the ones I originally wanted to
do, I came up with new ideas and have been squeezing them in
as well. Stay tuned. I think we all will learn from them...
MK
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