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  • Re: A lucky guess

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Sat Jan 27 08:37:04 2024
    On 1/27/2024 5:56 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Here, there are only two candidate plays but I had no real idea
    whether to go greedy or safe.
    I guessed right but it really was a guess.


    I think that if you have one checker closed out, then the only time
    you would clear the 5pt instead of the 6pt with 5x is if x=1 and
    you don't have a spare on the 4pt, as in the position below.


    XGID=aBBDBBB-----b--b-b-cb-c---:2:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O | +---+
    | O O | | O O O | | 4 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X X X X |
    | O | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 48 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, O own cube
    X to play 51

    1. XG Roller++ 5/4 5/Off eq:+1.473
    Player: 95.65% (G:57.49% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 4.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

    2. XG Roller++ 6/5 6/1 eq:+1.460 (-0.013)
    Player: 96.08% (G:55.19% B:0.03%)
    Opponent: 3.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release


    At gammon go, you can occasionally find a position where it's a bit
    better to clear the 5pt.


    XGID=aBBCCBB------b-b-b-cb-c---:0:0:1:53:0:1:1:2:10

    Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O O |
    | O O O | | O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | | | X X X X X X |
    | | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 49 O: 122 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    X to play 53

    1. Rollout¹ 5/2 5/Off eq:+1.956
    Player: 95.33% (G:52.47% B:0.39%)
    Opponent: 4.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (+1.953..+1.959) - [99.9%]

    2. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/1 eq:+1.950 (-0.006)
    Player: 98.11% (G:49.37% B:0.25%)
    Opponent: 1.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (+1.947..+1.953) - [0.1%]

    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

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