From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Tue Jan 16 08:42:42 2024
XGID=bBB-C-BA-A--cA-b-c-cbB--A-:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X | +---+
| O O | | O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 161 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51
The normal approach in a blitz is to keep bringing down more ammunition
to try to complete the closeout. But if you have several builders
already and your back checkers are somewhat hemmed in, then at some
point you need to start freeing those checkers, lest you roll something
awkward and are forced to collapse.
If X's checkers on his 21pt were split then jumping out would not be so
urgent (see variant below).
1. Rollout¹ 21/16 7/6 eq:+0.636
Player: 67.33% (G:50.93% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 32.67% (G:7.89% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.626..+0.646) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 21/16 9/8 eq:+0.594 (-0.042)
Player: 66.03% (G:50.15% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 33.97% (G:8.98% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.582..+0.606) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 24/23 21/16 eq:+0.572 (-0.064)
Player: 65.83% (G:49.46% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 34.17% (G:9.07% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.562..+0.583) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 21/16 4/3 eq:+0.532 (-0.104)
Player: 64.58% (G:49.47% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 35.42% (G:10.90% B:0.95%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.521..+0.543) - [0.0%]
5. Rollout¹ 24/18 eq:+0.518 (-0.118)
Player: 64.64% (G:46.38% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 35.36% (G:9.04% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.509..+0.528) - [0.0%]
6. Rollout¹ 13/8 7/6 eq:+0.474 (-0.162)
Player: 63.14% (G:46.22% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 36.86% (G:8.78% B:0.46%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.462..+0.487) - [0.0%]
7. Rollout¹ 13/8 4/3 eq:+0.466 (-0.171)
Player: 62.69% (G:46.75% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 37.31% (G:10.02% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.454..+0.477) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=bBB-C-BA-A--cA-b-c-cbAA-A-:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X X | +---+
| O O | | O O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 161 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51
1. Rollout¹ 21/16 7/6 eq:+0.624
Player: 66.84% (G:51.67% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 33.16% (G:8.86% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.615..+0.634) - [90.8%]
2. Rollout¹ 21/16 9/8 eq:+0.612 (-0.012)
Player: 66.47% (G:51.28% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 33.53% (G:9.51% B:0.75%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.604..+0.621) - [2.5%]
3. Rollout¹ 24/23 21/16 eq:+0.612 (-0.013)
Player: 66.62% (G:51.71% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 33.38% (G:9.55% B:0.84%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.602..+0.622) - [2.8%]
4. Rollout¹ 22/16 eq:+0.610 (-0.014)
Player: 66.54% (G:50.78% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 33.46% (G:8.62% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.600..+0.621) - [2.1%]
5. Rollout¹ 13/8 7/6 eq:+0.610 (-0.015)
Player: 66.38% (G:51.16% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 33.62% (G:8.49% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.599..+0.621) - [1.8%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)