From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Wed Jan 10 22:13:12 2024
XGID=-BB-BCBb-----B--A--b-abddA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 108 O: 70 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
It's pretty easy to judge that if X hits then he almost always loses
his market, but I was concerned that if I danced then I would be in
big trouble. I'm almost 40 pips down, after all. But it's not as bad
as I thought. O might not be able to clean up her blot, and still has
quite a lot of work to do even if she does clean up the blot. Once one
sees that, it becomes a double per O'Hagan's Law.
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 64.41% (G:21.64% B:0.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.59% (G:6.86% B:0.02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.65% (G:21.50% B:0.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.35% (G:6.81% B:0.03%)
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.498 (-0.138)
Double/Take: +0.636
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.364)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.488..+0.508)
Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+0.621..+0.650)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)