XGID=---BBBC-A---cDb--c-fa---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---BBBC-A---cDb--c-fa---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

O'Hagan's Law says that if you have at least a 25% chance of losing
your market, and the rest of the time you're still doing okay, then
it's an initial double. Here, X has 15 rolls that hit, and that will
lose X's market unless O rolls a joker from the bar (a nondescript
entering roll won't cut it). So that's well over 25%. As for the rest
of the time, X has no disaster rolls. By O'Hagan's Law, this should
be an initial double, and the rollout confirms that prediction.

Stick mentioned redoubling. O'Hagan's Law says you need a higher chance
of losing your market to redouble. Exactly how much higher, I don't
know if O'Hagan has an exact threshold, but maybe 30%? In any case, I
suspect that there are enough market losing sequences here to indicate
a redouble according to O'Hagan; however, the rollout says it's not
quite a redouble.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 62.06% (G:20.74% B:0.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.94% (G:3.02% B:0.08%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.42% (G:20.33% B:0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.58% (G:3.00% B:0.10%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.459 (-0.086)
Double/Take: +0.545
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.455)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.450..+0.467)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.531..+0.558)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------------
X owning cube
-------------

XGID=---BBBC-A---cDb--c-fa---A-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X | +---+
| O | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 61.83% (G:20.79% B:0.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.17% (G:3.02% B:0.10%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.42% (G:20.33% B:0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.58% (G:3.00% B:0.10%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.581
Redouble/Take: +0.545 (-0.036)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.419)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.9%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.574..+0.588)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.531..+0.558)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)