• Re: A gambler's double?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Mon Jan 1 17:55:04 2024
    On 1/1/2024 4:26 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I'm puzzled as to why my double below is so weak. 3s look crushing
    and even my 25% of dances leave the game fairly even with XG's evaluation
    for me being -0.2.
    Hits look like big market losers and the opponent has an enormous
    amount of work to do to escape my prime.
    Furthermore, I'm behind in the match which seems to suggest doubling
    more readily than for money.
    Why is the double bad? I was very confident in the double and unsure
    whether XG would even take.

    You're right that the score makes you a lot more eager to redouble
    than for money.

    But I think what you may be underestimating is your opponent's
    counter-priming potential. Let's say you roll 32, which you'd be pretty
    happy with since it enters with a hit. You play bar/22* 8/6, and now
    your opponent has some rolls that enter and hit. Say your opponent
    rolls 32 as well, and hits. You still have an advantage but not much
    of one, because of your opponent's counter-priming potential.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)