XGID=--a-CBBa---A-------dABCgbA:1:1:1:00:0:3:0:7:10

Score is X:0 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O X X X O O |
| | | O X X O O |
| | | O X O |
| | | O O |
| | X | 7 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X | | 2 |
| X O | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 198 O: 81 X-O: 0-3/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--a-CBBa---A-------dABCgbA:1:1:1:00:0:3:0:7:10

Score is X:0 O:3 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O X X X O O |
| | | O X X O O |
| | | O X O |
| | | O O |
| | X | 7 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X | | 2 |
| X O | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 198 O: 81 X-O: 0-3/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

As you can probably tell, this position arose later in the same game.
X is on the bar and still has a lot of work to do. For money, it would
be a big blunder to redouble, but ATS, XG says that O should throw in
the towel now. Bots don't play this type of position very well, but I
think that XG will misplay X's side more than it will misplay O's side,
so I think the rollout verdict of RD/P is credible.

The variant below is a little unusual; I have changed the score to
3a3a, so that redoubling kills O's gammons. The rollout says it's a
borderline redouble. Again, one should take this verdict with a grain
of salt, but it does underline why redoubling for money is a mistake;
O still wins about a third of the time, and the majority of those
wins are gammon wins.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 65.35% (G:18.56% B:0.84%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.65% (G:24.53% B:1.55%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.04% (G:18.71% B:1.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.96% (G:26.88% B:2.87%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.947 (-0.053)
Redouble/Take: +1.221 (+0.221)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.932..+0.961)
Confidence Double: ± 0.032 (+1.189..+1.253)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

----
3a3a
----

XGID=--a-CBBa---A-------dABCgbA:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:3:10

Score is X:0 O:0 3 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O X X X O O |
| | | O X X O O |
| | | O X O |
| | | O O |
| | X | 7 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X | | 2 |
| X O | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 198 O: 81 X-O: 0-0/3
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 66.59% (G:14.70% B:0.83%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.41% (G:25.52% B:2.65%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.36% (G:14.01% B:0.84%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.64% (G:25.96% B:2.90%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.656
Redouble/Take: +0.652 (-0.003)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.344)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.9%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.018 (+0.638..+0.673)
Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+0.634..+0.671)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)