XGID=-C-C------a-aa-------ccccA:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | | X
| | | | X
| | | X X | X X
| | | X X | X X
| O O | | X X | X X
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 37 O: 70 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-C-C------a-aa-------ccccA:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | | X
| | | | X
| | | X X | X X
| | | X X | X X
| O O | | X X | X X
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 37 O: 70 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51

Do you step up to the 19pt, exposing yourself to 24 shots instead of 15?
Or do you hang back on the 20pt, creating a new blot in your home board?
The new blot is not immediately exposed to a direct shot, but it could
get hit in the course of a blot-hitting contest.

XG opts to step up. This kind of decision can be delicate, as the
variant below illustrates.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/19 eq:+0.882
Player: 90.83% (G:9.35% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 9.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.879..+0.884) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 3/2 eq:+0.808 (-0.074)
Player: 87.54% (G:10.12% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 12.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.804..+0.812) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-C--C-----a-aa-------ccccA:1:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| O O | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 40 O: 70 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 52

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 4/2 eq:+0.794
Player: 87.41% (G:9.04% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 12.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.791..+0.798) - [92.3%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/18 eq:+0.791 (-0.003)
Player: 88.37% (G:6.40% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 11.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.788..+0.794) - [7.7%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)