From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Sat Dec 30 10:31:49 2023
XGID=-ab--BE-D---cD--ab-cab----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 124 O: 165 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
O has a deuce-point holding game with an extra checker back. I thought
she was in dire straits, but the XG rollout below says it's not even
a double. I have a tendency to underestimate the defender's chances in
this sort of position. Below, instead of a variant, I have posted three different positions from my archives. In each case, I underestimated
O's chances OTB.
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 67.54% (G:18.67% B:0.95%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.46% (G:6.03% B:0.23%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.39% (G:18.83% B:0.97%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.61% (G:6.17% B:0.25%)
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.753
Double/Take: +0.714 (-0.039)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.247)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.8%
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.738..+0.768)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.695..+0.733)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
----------
Position 1
----------
XGID=-ab-B-EBB---dB-A---cc-b-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 133 O: 161 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 63.66% (G:18.99% B:1.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.34% (G:9.33% B:0.27%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.78% (G:19.02% B:1.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.22% (G:9.27% B:0.32%)
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.557
Double/Take: +0.479 (-0.079)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.443)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.1%
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.542..+0.573)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.459..+0.498)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
----------
Position 2
----------
XGID=-BcB-BC-B---bB-Bb--bbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O |
| X X O | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X O |
| O X | | X X X O X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 108 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 67.18% (G:15.72% B:0.53%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.82% (G:5.95% B:0.24%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.09% (G:15.76% B:0.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.91% (G:6.03% B:0.26%)
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.705
Double/Take: +0.642 (-0.063)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.295)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.7%
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.693..+0.718)
Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+0.627..+0.657)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
----------
Position 3
----------
XGID=-abB-BB-B---cE--Ad-e----A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 171 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 68.72% (G:21.08% B:1.25%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.28% (G:6.66% B:0.24%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.55% (G:21.65% B:1.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.45% (G:6.83% B:0.25%)
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.814 (-0.003)
Double/Take: +0.817
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.183)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.801..+0.827)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.801..+0.834)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)