• Unlikely gammon

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Dec 28 08:57:30 2023
    Just for amusement...

    I was playing XG. In the position below, I played 22/21 9/5, and
    then XG proceeded to win a gammon, *without ever hitting*. Over
    the course of the next 11 rolls, I rolled a total of 61 pips (so
    about 5.5 pips per roll). Meanwhile, over the next 9 rolls, XG
    rolled 109 pips, averaging about 12 pips per roll.

    The bot info below suggests that a gammon win for O is not all
    that unlikely (around 3%), but I suspect that most of those
    gammons involve some hitting at some point.

    XGID=-B-BB-B--B--bBa--dbdbBA---:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O X X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | O | | O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | O X | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | O X | | X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 136 O: 117 X-O: 0-0/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 41

    1. 4-ply 22/21 9/5 eq:-0.490
    Player: 22.84% (G:1.08% B:0.01%)
    Opponent: 77.16% (G:3.45% B:0.05%)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

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