I think you have mostly answered your own question. For starters,
XG says it's barely a money redouble. In general, when you are
ahead in the match score, you should be cautious about redoubling
in gammonish positions. Not only do you risk devaluing your own
gammons, you amplify the effect of your opponent's gammons.
You don't have to be much ahead in the match score for this effect
to be substantial. Suppose you were leading 2-0 in a 17-point match.
XG would still hate your redouble to 4. If your opponent re-redoubles
to 8 and then wins a gammon, then they've practically won the match.
They don't need to win that many gammons for this possibility to
loom large.
---
Tim Chow
On 12/22/2023 8:16 AM,
peps...@gmail.com wrote:
I would be grateful to anyone who could explain why my redouble to 4
is so weak. The high no-double equity of 0.6 indicates that I have a strong position and XG is hugely vulnerable to gammons. I see the position has volatile with my 3s being powerful.
I suppose one factor is that XG can partially kill my gammons by redoubling to 8 which is exactly what XG did later in the game.
Cubing still looks fine to me. I'm sure it's a money double.
Explanations would be very welcome. Or has the
kill-my-gammons-by-redoubling point answered my own question.
Paul
XGID=abB-B-C-B-a-bDa--A-bbbbA--:1:1:1:00:2:0:0:11:10
X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
Score is X:2 O:0 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| X | |