• Early blitz cube 2

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Dec 19 09:24:23 2023
    XGID=aB--aBE-B---dB---c-dbA--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 129 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Dec 23 09:03:38 2023
    XGID=aB--aBE-B---dB---c-dbA--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X | | X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 129 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    This position is worse for O than the previous position. X has 11
    checkers in the zone, and a three-point board. O's chances of
    anchoring are worse since she has only one checker in X's board
    to anchor on, and it's on a high point that could get whacked
    immediately. The pip count differential is also pretty large. The
    one thing O has going for her is that she's made her 5pt. I thought
    it wasn't enough for a take, but XG says it is plenty.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 64.31% (G:39.12% B:0.47%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.69% (G:8.85% B:0.51%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 64.26% (G:40.95% B:0.44%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.74% (G:9.26% B:0.55%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.690 (-0.223)
    Double/Take: +0.913
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.087)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.679..+0.702)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.896..+0.929)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)