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  • Re: I don't care so long as I get the money

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Dec 17 09:15:18 2023
    For reference, here's a money-game rollout.

    XGID=-B-CCBBA-b-----B-a-cabbca-:1:-1:1:54:0:0:3:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O O | +---+
    | X | | O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 82 O: 84 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54

    1. Rollout¹ 7/2 6/2 eq:-0.044
    Player: 54.59% (G:1.00% B:0.02%)
    Opponent: 45.41% (G:0.87% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.047..-0.041) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 6/2 6/1 eq:-0.058 (-0.014)
    Player: 54.55% (G:0.68% B:0.01%)
    Opponent: 45.45% (G:1.06% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.061..-0.054) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 15/6 eq:-0.065 (-0.022)
    Player: 52.19% (G:3.91% B:0.15%)
    Opponent: 47.81% (G:1.33% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.068..-0.062) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Sun Dec 17 09:35:59 2023
    On 12/17/2023 9:29 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Are the differences between your equities and my equities
    primarily due to the greater accuracy of the rollout as opposed to
    analysis or due to the AtS difference?

    XGID=-B-CCBBA-b-----B-a-cabbca-:1:-1:1:54:2:0:0:11:10

    Score is X:2 O:0 11 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O O O | +---+
    | X | | O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 82 O: 84 X-O: 2-0/11
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54

    1. Rollout¹ 7/2 6/2 eq:-0.060
    Player: 54.57% (G:1.04% B:0.02%)
    Opponent: 45.43% (G:0.89% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.063..-0.057) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 6/2 6/1 eq:-0.073 (-0.013)
    Player: 54.59% (G:0.71% B:0.01%)
    Opponent: 45.41% (G:1.12% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.077..-0.070) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 15/6 eq:-0.076 (-0.016)
    Player: 52.18% (G:3.93% B:0.15%)
    Opponent: 47.82% (G:1.33% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.078..-0.073) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)