On 12/16/2023 3:50 PM,
peps...@gmail.com wrote:
I know that the analysis says that the decision to volunteer a shot is too close to call but I don't see the upside of volunteering a shot.
After all, I'm very unlikely to get a gammon if I don't hit anything more.
The way I would analyze this position is to start by pretending
that it's DMP. At DMP, your opponent *wants* to get hit, because
if your opponent can anchor, then her winning chances are better
than if she has just a lone checker trapped behind your six-prime.
You can confirm this by playing 6/1 4/2* for your opponent, and
checking that the computer thinks that it would be unlucky for
you to hit from the bar.
You're correct that the downside of hitting is that it leads to
more gammon losses for your opponent. So at a normal score, it's
a delicate tradeoff between wins and gammons.
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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