From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Sun Dec 17 09:31:36 2023
XGID=--BaBDCaBB-------------cj-:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | 10 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| X X O | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 84 O: 56 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64
Here again, hitting 9/3* is clear, but I was startled to see that
XG favors 5/1 with the 4. Does X *want* to get hit? No, but he *does*
want to keep as many builders as possible for the 3pt. See the variant
below in which a spare has been shifted from the 5pt to the 6pt.
1. Rollout¹ 9/3* 5/1 eq:+0.942
Player: 84.69% (G:29.81% B:0.88%)
Opponent: 15.31% (G:2.02% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.936..+0.947) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 9/3* 6/2 eq:+0.869 (-0.073)
Player: 84.20% (G:22.92% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 15.80% (G:1.03% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.864..+0.874) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 9/3* 8/4 eq:+0.845 (-0.097)
Player: 82.61% (G:25.06% B:0.71%)
Opponent: 17.39% (G:1.95% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.840..+0.850) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 9/5 9/3* eq:+0.842 (-0.100)
Player: 84.19% (G:20.56% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 15.81% (G:0.62% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.837..+0.847) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=--BaBCDaBB-------------cj-:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | 10 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| X X O | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 85 O: 56 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64
1. Rollout¹ 9/3* 6/2 eq:+0.926
Player: 86.02% (G:24.76% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 13.98% (G:0.98% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.921..+0.931) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 9/3* 5/1 eq:+0.899 (-0.027)
Player: 83.24% (G:28.85% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 16.76% (G:1.88% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.894..+0.903) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)