On 11/11/2021 11:53 AM, BlueDice wrote:
XGID=--aB--DbB--CaD---bac-bab--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+Nice one! Here's how I'm inclined to view this position, after
| X O O | | O O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X X O | | X X |
| O X X O | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61
playing around with it a bit. Does X want to attack, race, or
prime? I'd say that if X wants to try to prime, then he should
make the 5pt, but if he wants to try attacking or racing, then
he should play 13/12*/6. The trouble with making the 5pt is that
it's hard to prime O in this position. Either attacking or trying
to gain pips in the race is more promising.
Below are two variants which might help shed some light.
---------
Variant 1
---------
XGID=--aB--DcB--CaD---b-c-bab--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X O | | X |
| X X O | | X X |
| O X X O | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61
1. Rollout¹ 13/12* 12/6 eq:+0.721
Player: 67.24% (G:16.78% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 32.76% (G:6.73% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.710..+0.732) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:+0.564 (-0.157)
Player: 65.95% (G:7.67% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 34.05% (G:3.48% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.553..+0.575) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---------
Variant 2
---------
XGID=--aBa-DbB--CaD---b-c-bab--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X X O | | X X |
| O X X O | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61
1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:+0.702
Player: 68.00% (G:11.93% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 32.00% (G:4.15% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.693..+0.711) - [97.3%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/12* 12/6 eq:+0.689 (-0.013)
Player: 66.64% (G:16.65% B:0.73%)
Opponent: 33.36% (G:7.25% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.680..+0.698) - [2.7%]
¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
XGID=--aB--DbB--CaD---bac-bab--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X X O | | X X |
| O X X O | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61
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