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  • Advance the anchor to the bar point?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Nov 30 08:48:06 2023
    XGID=----BBD-B---bB---c-dc-Cab-:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X O O |
    | X O | | O O X O |
    | O | | O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X X X | | 2 |
    | O X | | X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 150 O: 93 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 44

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Dec 3 09:41:58 2023
    XGID=----BBD-B---bB---c-dc-Cab-:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X O O |
    | X O | | O O X O |
    | O | | O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X X X | | 2 |
    | O X | | X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 150 O: 93 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 44

    Advancing the anchor to the bar point will give X better chances of
    getting and hitting a shot on O's midpoint, but X still has play
    against O's 8pt. Advancing to the bar point now would give O many
    turns to dump into her board while waiting for doublets to clear
    her midpoint and lock up the game.

    1. Rollout¹ 22/14 6/2(2) eq:-0.312
    Player: 32.44% (G:3.94% B:0.12%)
    Opponent: 67.56% (G:10.64% B:0.20%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.319..-0.305) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 22/10 6/2 eq:-0.328 (-0.015)
    Player: 31.25% (G:3.93% B:0.16%)
    Opponent: 68.75% (G:9.05% B:0.26%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.333..-0.322) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 22/10 8/4 eq:-0.341 (-0.029)
    Player: 30.58% (G:3.56% B:0.13%)
    Opponent: 69.42% (G:8.61% B:0.20%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.347..-0.335) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 22/18(3) 6/2 eq:-0.424 (-0.112)
    Player: 25.92% (G:2.80% B:0.08%)
    Opponent: 74.08% (G:5.55% B:0.07%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.430..-0.418) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 22/18(2) 6/2(2) eq:-0.496 (-0.184)
    Player: 30.08% (G:5.12% B:0.17%)
    Opponent: 69.92% (G:26.14% B:0.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.503..-0.489) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)