• 4-away/7-away recube action

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Nov 28 09:48:56 2023
    XGID=-CDaCC-a-B----------bcbbd-:1:1:1:00:3:0:0:7:10

    Score is X:3 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X X X | +---+
    | X | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | X O | | X X O X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 56 O: 76 X-O: 3-0/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Dec 1 08:51:22 2023
    XGID=-CDaCC-a-B----------bcbbd-:1:1:1:00:3:0:0:7:10

    Score is X:3 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X X X | +---+
    | X | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | X O | | X X O X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 56 O: 76 X-O: 3-0/7
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    I'm always nervous about redoubling to 4 when ahead in the match and
    gammons are still possible. However, gammon *losses* are negligible
    in this position, and according to XG, this cube fits squarely within
    the doubling window.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 82.59% (G:6.77% B:0.10%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 17.41% (G:0.83% B:0.01%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 82.73% (G:5.70% B:0.03%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 17.27% (G:0.49% B:0.00%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.785 (-0.102)
    Redouble/Take: +0.887
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.113)

    Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+0.782..+0.788)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+0.882..+0.893)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)