• 5pt or hit? 2

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Nov 24 16:24:16 2023
    XGID=-b----E-D--AdC---abd--b-B-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 160 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Nov 26 08:28:43 2023
    XGID=-b----E-D--AdC---abd--b-B-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 160 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    O has made her bar point, so X's back checkers are starting to get
    primed. This roll therefore does several things at once: not only
    does it hit, but it escapes a back checker and interferes with O's prime-building. It would be a different story if X had the 2pt anchor
    rather than the 1pt anchor (see variant).

    1. Rollout¹ 24/17* eq:+0.013
    Player: 51.16% (G:13.74% B:0.80%)
    Opponent: 48.84% (G:16.25% B:0.71%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.002..+0.028) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:-0.046 (-0.059)
    Player: 49.02% (G:16.18% B:0.87%)
    Opponent: 50.98% (G:17.42% B:0.94%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.060..-0.033) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-b----E-D--AdC---abd--bB--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 158 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:+0.139
    Player: 52.85% (G:17.56% B:0.78%)
    Opponent: 47.15% (G:13.58% B:0.69%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.126..+0.153) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 23/17* 17/16 eq:+0.069 (-0.071)
    Player: 52.62% (G:14.69% B:1.02%)
    Opponent: 47.38% (G:15.99% B:0.71%)
    Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.051..+0.086) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 23/17* 11/10 eq:+0.068 (-0.071)
    Player: 52.36% (G:14.74% B:0.98%)
    Opponent: 47.64% (G:16.08% B:0.70%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.054..+0.081) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)