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  • 5pt or hit?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Nov 23 14:25:11 2023
    XGID=-b----E-C--AcDa--c-dbA--A-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 162 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Nov 25 21:08:58 2023
    XGID=-b----E-C--AcDa--c-dbA--A-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 162 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    Making the 5pt and hitting in the opponent's outfield are both very
    strong plays in general, so the choice between them is not always
    clear. Here, O's blot is not directly threatening X's blot, and in a blot-hitting contest, X is outboarded. For comparison, see the
    variants below.

    1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:-0.065
    Player: 48.69% (G:14.40% B:0.84%)
    Opponent: 51.31% (G:17.09% B:0.74%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.081..-0.050) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 21/14* eq:-0.152 (-0.087)
    Player: 47.28% (G:11.75% B:0.66%)
    Opponent: 52.72% (G:17.61% B:0.76%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.166..-0.138) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 1
    ---------

    XGID=-b----E-C--AcD-a-c-dbA--A-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 162 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    1. Rollout¹ 21/15* 11/10 eq:-0.155
    Player: 47.22% (G:12.26% B:0.70%)
    Opponent: 52.78% (G:17.78% B:0.82%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.163..-0.148) - [62.4%]

    2. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:-0.159 (-0.003)
    Player: 47.02% (G:14.21% B:0.79%)
    Opponent: 52.98% (G:19.21% B:0.77%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.167..-0.151) - [21.5%]

    3. Rollout¹ 21/15* 15/14 eq:-0.160 (-0.004)
    Player: 47.16% (G:11.95% B:0.68%)
    Opponent: 52.84% (G:17.82% B:0.77%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.168..-0.152) - [16.1%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 2
    ---------
    XGID=-a--a-E-C--AcDa--c-dbA--A-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 162 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:-0.219
    Player: 45.35% (G:11.44% B:0.61%)
    Opponent: 54.65% (G:16.43% B:0.66%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.231..-0.206) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 21/14* eq:-0.255 (-0.036)
    Player: 45.06% (G:10.01% B:0.47%)
    Opponent: 54.94% (G:17.87% B:0.69%)
    Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.272..-0.238) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Nov 28 14:47:44 2023
    On Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 9:09:05 PM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-b----E-C--AcDa--c-dbA--A-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 162 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61
    Making the 5pt and hitting in the opponent's outfield are both very
    strong plays in general, so the choice between them is not always
    clear. Here, O's blot is not directly threatening X's blot, and in a blot-hitting contest, X is outboarded. For comparison, see the
    variants below.

    1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:-0.065
    Player: 48.69% (G:14.40% B:0.84%)
    Opponent: 51.31% (G:17.09% B:0.74%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.081..-0.050) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 21/14* eq:-0.152 (-0.087)
    Player: 47.28% (G:11.75% B:0.66%)
    Opponent: 52.72% (G:17.61% B:0.76%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.166..-0.138) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 1
    ---------

    XGID=-b----E-C--AcD-a-c-dbA--A-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 162 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61
    1. Rollout¹ 21/15* 11/10 eq:-0.155
    Player: 47.22% (G:12.26% B:0.70%)
    Opponent: 52.78% (G:17.78% B:0.82%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.163..-0.148) - [62.4%]

    2. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:-0.159 (-0.003)
    Player: 47.02% (G:14.21% B:0.79%)
    Opponent: 52.98% (G:19.21% B:0.77%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.167..-0.151) - [21.5%]

    3. Rollout¹ 21/15* 15/14 eq:-0.160 (-0.004)
    Player: 47.16% (G:11.95% B:0.68%)
    Opponent: 52.84% (G:17.82% B:0.77%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.168..-0.152) - [16.1%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 2
    ---------
    XGID=-a--a-E-C--AcDa--c-dbA--A-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 162 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61
    1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:-0.219
    Player: 45.35% (G:11.44% B:0.61%)
    Opponent: 54.65% (G:16.43% B:0.66%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.231..-0.206) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 21/14* eq:-0.255 (-0.036)
    Player: 45.06% (G:10.01% B:0.47%)
    Opponent: 54.94% (G:17.87% B:0.69%)
    Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.272..-0.238) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    The most obvious variant for me would be rolling a spare from the opp's 6pt to his 5pt in the original position. Making the 5pt remains on top by ~.035.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jan 29 09:11:21 2024
    XGID=-b----DAC---cCa--b-dbAa-BA:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X O | | 2 |
    | O X X | | X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 188 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 11

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Feb 3 18:10:10 2024
    XGID=-b----DAC---cCa--b-dbAa-BA:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X O | | 2 |
    | O X X | | X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 188 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 11

    Bar/24 is forced and 8/7 is obvious; the question is whether to hit
    with 24/22* or make the 5pt with 6/5(2). This type of decision can
    go either way, and has to be judged on a case-by-case basis. Here,
    X is well behind in the pip count and wants to prime O, and 6/5(2)
    does a great job of that. XG says the decision is not close. I have
    given two variants below in which XG says the decision is closer,
    though even in these variants, XG still favors 6/5(2).

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/7 6/5(2) eq:+0.129
    Player: 50.76% (G:13.82% B:0.79%)
    Opponent: 49.24% (G:22.68% B:2.67%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.115..+0.144) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/22* 8/7 eq:+0.032 (-0.098)
    Player: 46.12% (G:12.10% B:0.74%)
    Opponent: 53.88% (G:19.29% B:1.40%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.017..+0.046) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 1
    ---------

    XGID=-b----DAC---cC--ab-ccAa-BA:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X O | | 2 |
    | O X X | | X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 188 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 11

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/7 6/5(2) eq:+0.030
    Player: 48.23% (G:12.81% B:0.81%)
    Opponent: 51.77% (G:24.90% B:3.48%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.015..+0.046) - [99.1%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/22* 8/7 eq:+0.006 (-0.024)
    Player: 45.58% (G:12.21% B:0.75%)
    Opponent: 54.42% (G:20.58% B:1.71%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.006..+0.018) - [0.9%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 2
    ---------

    XGID=-a-a--DAC---cCa--b-dbAa-BA:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X | | 2 |
    | O X X | | X O O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 188 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 11

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/7 6/5(2) eq:-0.004
    Player: 46.97% (G:11.85% B:0.71%)
    Opponent: 53.03% (G:24.36% B:3.03%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.019..+0.010) - [99.9%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/22* 8/7 eq:-0.034 (-0.029)
    Player: 44.06% (G:10.84% B:0.56%)
    Opponent: 55.94% (G:19.60% B:1.46%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.046..-0.022) - [0.1%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)