XGID=-Ba-B-C-C---cC-b-d-eB-----:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X | +---+
| X O O | | O X | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54
The "adage" I had in mind was Magriel's safe-bold criteria.
https://bkgm.com/gloss/lookup.cgi?magriels+safe+bold+criteria
Five out of six of the criteria point to a bold play. However,
the rollout below says the best play by far is the safe 13/4.
BlueDice suggested Michy's principle of playing safe at the advanced
stage. I do find that Michy's principle tends to work better than
Magriel's criteria in this sort of position. On the other hand, in
the two variants below, XG favors the bold, attacking hit. One has
to assess not only the general strategic principles that suggest
bold versus safe play, but how well positioned X is to execute a
successful attack. He has ten checkers in the zone and a three-
point board, but after 13/8 6/2* in the original position, he has
spares only on his 8pt, which mean that it's not so easy for him
to cover his blot even if missed, and he doesn't have that many
hitting rolls if O comes in.
1. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+0.221
Player: 60.73% (G:21.98% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 39.27% (G:5.91% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.212..+0.230) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/2* eq:+0.126 (-0.095)
Player: 57.59% (G:20.60% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 42.41% (G:6.21% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.117..+0.134) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:+0.097 (-0.124)
Player: 57.40% (G:20.44% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 42.60% (G:9.76% B:0.43%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.088..+0.106) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/3 eq:+0.070 (-0.151)
Player: 55.63% (G:20.12% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 44.37% (G:6.51% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.060..+0.080) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---------
Variant 1
---------
XGID=-Ba-B-D-B---cC-b-d-eB-----:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X | +---+
| X O O | | O X | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54
1. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/2* eq:+0.240
Player: 60.53% (G:24.36% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 39.47% (G:5.75% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.231..+0.249) - [99.9%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+0.219 (-0.021)
Player: 60.65% (G:21.99% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 39.35% (G:6.05% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.210..+0.228) - [0.1%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---------
Variant 2
---------
XGID=-B-aB-C-C---cC-b-d-eB-----:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X | +---+
| X O O | | O X | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64
1. Rollout¹ 13/3* eq:+0.226
Player: 59.96% (G:24.73% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 40.04% (G:5.75% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.220..+0.232) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/2 eq:+0.207 (-0.019)
Player: 60.08% (G:21.86% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 39.92% (G:5.55% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.200..+0.213) - [0.0%]
¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)