XGID=--ACBCBbB----B----ba-bbcc-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X O | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 88 O: 79 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--ACBCBbB----B----ba-bbcc-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X O | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 88 O: 79 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43

Who's holding whom? Visually, it might look like O is holding X, but X
is behind in the pip count (if we ignore wastage). The game is roughly
level, and X would be happy to hit a shot. To maximize his chances of
that, he needs to keep his 8pt. The trouble is, keeping his 8pt forces
him to wreck his board somewhat, which means that even if he does hit
a shot, its effectiveness will be diminished.

XG hates 8/5 8/4, and doesn't like the compromise play of 8/4 5/2 much
better. Although 5/2 5/1 or 5/1 4/1 damages X's board, it's still rather strong, and the weaknesses are not beyond repair. See the variant below,
where the top two plays of the rollout are tied.

1. Rollout¹ 5/2 5/1 eq:+0.199
Player: 56.99% (G:2.45% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 43.01% (G:0.87% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.191..+0.206) - [77.3%]

2. Rollout¹ 5/1 4/1 eq:+0.195 (-0.004)
Player: 56.80% (G:2.25% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 43.20% (G:0.88% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.187..+0.202) - [22.7%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/2 5/2 eq:+0.180 (-0.019)
Player: 56.37% (G:1.82% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 43.63% (G:0.83% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.173..+0.188) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/4 5/2 eq:+0.139 (-0.060)
Player: 55.00% (G:5.00% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 45.00% (G:1.23% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.131..+0.147) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 8/5 8/4 eq:+0.115 (-0.084)
Player: 54.56% (G:2.07% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 45.44% (G:0.54% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.107..+0.123) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 8/1 eq:+0.106 (-0.093)
Player: 53.81% (G:6.22% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 46.19% (G:2.27% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.098..+0.114) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--ADBBBbB----B----ba-bbcc-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X O | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 86 O: 79 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 5/2 5/1 eq:+0.173
Player: 55.85% (G:1.57% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 44.15% (G:0.90% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.167..+0.179) - [70.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 8/4 eq:+0.171 (-0.002)
Player: 56.13% (G:1.95% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 43.87% (G:0.61% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.165..+0.177) - [29.1%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)