On Monday, November 6, 2023 at 9:33:34 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=a-BBaABCB-a-----cbAbbcB---:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54
Hitting 8/4* gives O a double shot from the bar and exposes another blot
on the 8pt, but XG says that anything else is horrible. Given that we
can't cover the 5pt, 8/4* give O that many more hitting rolls, and the upside is enormous if O doesn't hit back.
1. Rollout¹ 18/13 8/4* eq:-0.182
Player: 42.82% (G:21.25% B:0.94%)
Opponent: 57.18% (G:20.31% B:1.25%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.198..-0.166) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 22/18 7/2 eq:-0.361 (-0.179)
Player: 40.65% (G:15.23% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 59.35% (G:21.72% B:1.05%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.373..-0.350) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 8/4* 7/2 eq:-0.395 (-0.213)
Player: 37.86% (G:18.99% B:0.74%)
Opponent: 62.14% (G:24.42% B:1.45%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (-0.414..-0.376) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 8/3 8/4* eq:-0.427 (-0.244)
Player: 36.91% (G:17.26% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 63.09% (G:21.88% B:1.07%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.442..-0.411) - [0.0%]
5. Rollout¹ 22/18 8/3 eq:-0.476 (-0.294)
Player: 38.06% (G:15.13% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 61.94% (G:26.73% B:1.45%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.494..-0.458) - [0.0%]
6. Rollout¹ 18/9 eq:-0.489 (-0.307)
Player: 35.47% (G:13.41% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 64.53% (G:16.01% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.501..-0.477) - [0.0%]
7. Rollout¹ 22/13 eq:-0.608 (-0.426)
Player: 36.59% (G:15.92% B:0.96%)
Opponent: 63.41% (G:30.82% B:3.74%)
Confidence: ±0.022 (-0.631..-0.586) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=a-BBaABCB-a--A--cb-bbcB---:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54
1. Rollout¹ 22/13 eq:-0.176
Player: 44.12% (G:17.96% B:0.86%)
Opponent: 55.88% (G:19.45% B:0.74%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.190..-0.162) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/4* eq:-0.281 (-0.105)
Player: 40.29% (G:20.02% B:0.76%)
Opponent: 59.71% (G:16.46% B:0.73%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.296..-0.266) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
While we give the opponent more hitting numbers we really don't give him any more good rolls. Those numbers were pretty solid anyway as anchoring on a high point in this position is also fairly devastating.
Another thing to note is that this double hit can force the opponent into a lot of situations where he blows by his market, never getting a chance to cube. Also, for us, the 1/4th of the time he does dance with two on the bar and another checker
floating, we actually have a pretty decent cube next turn.
Stick
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