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  • Hit on the ace point?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Oct 26 23:36:40 2023
    XGID=-a---BFBC---b-b--cBcb-b---:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O X | | O O O |
    | O O X | | O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | 6 |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 120 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Oct 27 11:49:13 2023
    On 10/26/2023 11:36 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a---BFBC---b-b--cBcb-b---:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |    O        O  X |   | O  O     O       |  |    O        O  X |   | O  O     O       |  |             O    |   | O                |  |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   | 6                |
     |                  |   | X                |
     |             X    |   | X                |  | O           X  X |   | X  X             |
     | O           X  X |   | X  X           O |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 120  O: 130 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    8/2 looks almost forced. Then 6/5 looks more flexible than 2/1*.
    Hitting seems to give O more chances to move the runner to where it sees daylight.

    8/2 6/5.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Oct 27 12:50:35 2023
    On Thursday, October 26, 2023 at 11:36:44 PM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a---BFBC---b-b--cBcb-b---:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O X | | O O O |
    | O O X | | O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | 6 |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 120 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    ---
    Tim Chow

    I'm sure somebody out there is missing it ... Next!

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Oct 29 09:49:00 2023
    XGID=-a---BFBC---b-b--cBcb-b---:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O X | | O O O |
    | O O X | | O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | 6 |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 120 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    Spare distribution has a big influence on this play. See the two
    variants below.

    1. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/5 eq:+0.188
    Player: 54.92% (G:12.18% B:0.34%)
    Opponent: 45.08% (G:9.47% B:0.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.176..+0.199) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 8/1* eq:+0.060 (-0.128)
    Player: 51.70% (G:10.66% B:0.24%)
    Opponent: 48.30% (G:9.41% B:0.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.048..+0.072) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 1
    ---------

    XGID=-a---CEBC---b-b--cBcb-b---:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O X | | O O O |
    | O O X | | O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 119 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    1. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/5 eq:+0.206
    Player: 55.47% (G:12.23% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 44.53% (G:9.05% B:0.34%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.193..+0.218) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 8/1* eq:+0.166 (-0.040)
    Player: 54.16% (G:12.35% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 45.84% (G:8.57% B:0.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.154..+0.177) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 2
    ---------

    XGID=-a---DDBC---b-b--cBcb-b---:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O X | | O O O |
    | O O X | | O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 118 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    1. Rollout¹ 8/1* eq:+0.198
    Player: 54.83% (G:13.07% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 45.17% (G:8.89% B:0.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.187..+0.210) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/5 eq:+0.146 (-0.053)
    Player: 54.00% (G:11.50% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 46.00% (G:9.89% B:0.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.135..+0.157) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)