• Re: Ticket to blunderland? 64 to play.

    From BlueDice@21:1/5 to BlueDice on Wed Nov 10 04:57:27 2021
    On Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 12:32:48 PM UTC, BlueDice wrote:
    X has a checker on the bar.

    XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
    X:Player 1 O:Player 2

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 160 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64
    --
    BD

    Taken from a facebook>>Backgammon Strategy
    --
    BD

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  • From BlueDice@21:1/5 to All on Wed Nov 10 04:32:46 2021
    X has a checker on the bar.

    XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
    X:Player 1 O:Player 2

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 160 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64
    --
    BD

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  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to BlueDice on Wed Nov 10 08:19:38 2021
    On 11/10/2021 7:32 AM, BlueDice wrote:
    X has a checker on the bar.

    XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
    X:Player 1 O:Player 2

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 160 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    The four is forced. X can't cover any blots, so he's stuck with four
    blots unless he creates a fifth one by playing off the midpoint or eight
    point, neither of which are attractive.

    10/4 moves a blot from an indirect to a direct, so I doubt that's
    right. That seems to leave running one of the two back checkers. 21/15
    dupes fives to cover three ways so maybe 20/14 is better? Not sure but
    that's my choice.

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to BlueDice on Wed Nov 10 10:09:42 2021
    On 11/10/2021 7:32 AM, BlueDice wrote:
    X has a checker on the bar.

    XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
    X:Player 1 O:Player 2

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 160 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    I'd play 20/14. We're trying desperately to avoid getting blitzed
    off the board. Generally speaking that means we want our blots to
    be on lower, rather than higher, points in O's board. Also 20/14
    duplicates O's 2's to hit us. If we could duplicate 4's then I
    would do that, but we can't.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to BlueDice on Wed Nov 10 08:45:04 2021
    On Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 7:57:28 AM UTC-5, BlueDice wrote:
    On Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 12:32:48 PM UTC, BlueDice wrote:
    X has a checker on the bar.

    XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
    X:Player 1 O:Player 2

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 160 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64
    --
    BD
    Taken from a facebook>>Backgammon Strategy
    --
    BD

    But altered.

    Stick

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  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to BlueDice on Thu Nov 11 08:00:29 2021
    On Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 7:32:48 AM UTC-5, BlueDice wrote:
    X has a checker on the bar.

    XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
    X:Player 1 O:Player 2

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 160 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64
    --
    BD

    I could share a rule I discovered that I'm not sure if I've shared before for this exact type of play. I shared it with Steve Sax a couple of weeks ago and he was happy as a pig in shit about it. It seems rgb may be above Steve's level though so not
    sure if anyone is interested in that sort of adage nonsense.

    Stick

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  • From BlueDice@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Thu Nov 11 09:46:19 2021
    On Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 4:00:30 PM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 7:32:48 AM UTC-5, BlueDice wrote:
    X has a checker on the bar.

    XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
    X:Player 1 O:Player 2

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 160 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64
    --
    BD
    I could share a rule I discovered that I'm not sure if I've shared before for this exact type of play. I shared it with Steve Sax a couple of weeks ago and he was happy as a pig in shit about it. It seems rgb may be above Steve's level though so not
    sure if anyone is interested in that sort of adage nonsense.

    Stick

    Please tell.
    --
    BD

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  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to BlueDice on Thu Nov 11 15:09:20 2021
    On Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 12:46:20 PM UTC-5, BlueDice wrote:
    On Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 4:00:30 PM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 7:32:48 AM UTC-5, BlueDice wrote:
    X has a checker on the bar.

    XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
    X:Player 1 O:Player 2

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 160 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64
    --
    BD
    I could share a rule I discovered that I'm not sure if I've shared before for this exact type of play. I shared it with Steve Sax a couple of weeks ago and he was happy as a pig in shit about it. It seems rgb may be above Steve's level though so not
    sure if anyone is interested in that sort of adage nonsense.

    Stick
    Please tell.
    --
    BD

    When you have this type of situation (6x from the bar and the X or entering number is a four or five and you have a checker on the other point) you always run from the 20pt. This comes up waaaaay often and a lot of the time the difference in plays is
    not even that large, .020 give or take. However, the right play is always 20/14. Even I having created this rule, having collected a fair share of positions on it and seeing it tested time and again have no firm understanding of the why behind it. I
    accept it as true at this point and get on with life. There will be exceptions, of course, but these often involve other potential plays (like having 3 or 4 men back instead of 2 or hitting in your inner board instead of running either checker or some
    random massive duplication that pops up etc...)

    Stick

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Thu Nov 11 20:39:45 2021
    On 11/11/2021 6:09 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
    When you have this type of situation (6x from the bar and the X or entering number is a four or five and you have a checker on the other point) you always run from the 20pt. This comes up waaaaay often and a lot of the time the difference in plays is
    not even that large, .020 give or take. However, the right play is always 20/14. Even I having created this rule, having collected a fair share of positions on it and seeing it tested time and again have no firm understanding of the why behind it. I
    accept it as true at this point and get on with life. There will be exceptions, of course, but these often involve other potential plays (like having 3 or 4 men back instead of 2 or hitting in your inner board instead of running either checker or some
    random massive duplication that pops up etc...)

    Following the guidelines I suggested will almost always yield
    this result. Rarely is your opponent's priming threat going
    to be the dominant worry in such a situation. 20/14 will often
    duplicate 2's and lead to fewer double-hitting rolls, and
    getting pointed on will be less painful if you're on the 4pt
    versus the 5pt.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From BlueDice@21:1/5 to BlueDice on Fri Nov 12 13:38:17 2021
    On Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 12:32:48 PM UTC, BlueDice wrote:
    X has a checker on the bar.

    XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
    X:Player 1 O:Player 2

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 160 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64
    --
    BD

    Result, XGR ++

    1. XG Roller++ Bar/21 20/14 eq:-0.590
    Player: 40.18% (G:8.89% B:0.42%)
    Opponent: 59.82% (G:32.06% B:1.64%)

    2. XG Roller++ Bar/21 10/4 eq:-0.630 (-0.040)
    Player: 39.46% (G:9.31% B:0.43%)
    Opponent: 60.54% (G:32.61% B:1.65%)

    3. XG Roller++ Bar/15 eq:-0.933 (-0.343)
    Player: 36.46% (G:7.95% B:0.40%)
    Opponent: 63.54% (G:38.74% B:2.47%)
    --
    BD

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Wed Feb 2 00:18:54 2022
    On 11/11/2021 6:09 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
    When you have this type of situation (6x from the bar and the X or entering number is a four or five and you have a checker on the other point) you always run from the 20pt. This comes up waaaaay often and a lot of the time the difference in plays is
    not even that large, .020 give or take. However, the right play is always 20/14. Even I having created this rule, having collected a fair share of positions on it and seeing it tested time and again have no firm understanding of the why behind it. I
    accept it as true at this point and get on with life. There will be exceptions, of course, but these often involve other potential plays (like having 3 or 4 men back instead of 2 or hitting in your inner board instead of running either checker or some
    random massive duplication that pops up etc...)

    Below is a position that just came up today. I "automatically"
    played 20/14 and even Stick might call this a whopper. My guess
    is that duplication of 3's is a big part of the explanation.

    XGID=-b----E-D--BbB---cbb-Ab-bA:0:0:1:65:3:0:0:7:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:3 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X O O |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 156 O: 132 X-O: 3-0/7
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65

    1. XG Roller++ Bar/20 21/15 eq:-0.616
    Player: 41.56% (G:8.72% B:0.46%)
    Opponent: 58.44% (G:28.04% B:0.55%)

    2. XG Roller++ Bar/14 eq:-0.716 (-0.100)
    Player: 40.11% (G:8.71% B:0.48%)
    Opponent: 59.89% (G:29.20% B:0.52%)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Wed Feb 2 04:17:17 2022
    On Wednesday, February 2, 2022 at 12:18:58 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 11/11/2021 6:09 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
    When you have this type of situation (6x from the bar and the X or entering number is a four or five and you have a checker on the other point) you always run from the 20pt. This comes up waaaaay often and a lot of the time the difference in plays is
    not even that large, .020 give or take. However, the right play is always 20/14. Even I having created this rule, having collected a fair share of positions on it and seeing it tested time and again have no firm understanding of the why behind it. I
    accept it as true at this point and get on with life. There will be exceptions, of course, but these often involve other potential plays (like having 3 or 4 men back instead of 2 or hitting in your inner board instead of running either checker or some
    random massive duplication that pops up etc...)
    Below is a position that just came up today. I "automatically"
    played 20/14 and even Stick might call this a whopper. My guess
    is that duplication of 3's is a big part of the explanation.

    XGID=-b----E-D--BbB---cbb-Ab-bA:0:0:1:65:3:0:0:7:10
    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:3 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X O O |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 156 O: 132 X-O: 3-0/7
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65
    1. XG Roller++ Bar/20 21/15 eq:-0.616
    Player: 41.56% (G:8.72% B:0.46%)
    Opponent: 58.44% (G:28.04% B:0.55%)

    2. XG Roller++ Bar/14 eq:-0.716 (-0.100)
    Player: 40.11% (G:8.71% B:0.48%)
    Opponent: 59.89% (G:29.20% B:0.52%)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Yea, one play gives the opp. good 2s, 3s, and 4s in an overtly obvious position where they're going to attack you. The other play gives them good 3s and 4s. Also it should go without saying that when I put forth a general rule it's meant for normal
    match scores/money play. Not that it really changes the analysis here but it should be noted.

    Stick

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Wed Feb 2 09:13:21 2022
    On 2/2/2022 7:17 AM, Stick Rice wrote:
    Also it should go without saying that when I put forth a general rule it's meant for normal match scores/money play. Not that it really changes the analysis here but it should be noted.

    But then even I wouldn't have called it a whopper.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Thu Feb 3 17:06:10 2022
    On February 2, 2022 at 5:17:18 AM UTC-7, Stick Rice wrote:

    On February 2, 2022 at 12:18:58 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:

    On 11/11/2021 6:09 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

    When you have this type of situation (6x from the bar and
    the X or entering number is a four or five and you have a
    checker on the other point) you always run from the 20pt.
    .....
    Even I having created this rule, having collected a fair share
    of positions on it and seeing it tested time and again have
    no firm understanding of the why behind it.

    That's okay as long as you have a bank account behind your
    "rules"... ;)

    Below is a position that just came up today. I "automatically"
    played 20/14 and even Stick might call this a whopper. My
    guess is that duplication of 3's is a big part of the explanation.

    How come you all are so worried about playing safe by leaving
    fewer shots, duplicating numbers, etc.? What happened to the
    double slots being a next..??

    1. XG Roller++ Bar/20 21/15
    2. XG Roller++ Bar/14

    In this position, the triple blots is a next and the correct play
    is Bar/20 8/2.

    Also it should go without saying that when I put forth a general
    rule it's meant for normal match scores/money play. Not that it
    really changes the analysis here but it should be noted.

    You think you invented "a rule" out of anything new? Someone
    had also thought he had invented a new backgammon variant
    and was conceited enough to call it Nackgammon after his
    name even though what he suggested had been used for ages
    as a common strategy to send reinforcement to the men behind
    from the 8 and 6 points using a 6 or a 4.

    I can elaborate on this if you guys want but if you think about it
    a little, you probably can figure it out on your own. Unfortunately,
    you all prefer to confuse yourselves by screwing arount in circles
    with shitty bots that you tweaked yourselves in the first place...

    I guess it should be no surprise that a flock of idiot believers in
    illogical garbage and mentally ill gamblers can't understand bg
    nor see it as anything more than a gambling tool... :((

    MK

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Fri Feb 4 16:05:10 2022
    On February 1, 2022 at 10:18:58 PM UTC-7, Tim Chow wrote:

    Below is a position that just came up today. I "automatically"
    played 20/14 and even Stick might call this a whopper....

    XGID=-b----E-D--BbB---cbb-Ab-bA:0:0:1:65:3:0:0:7:10
    1. XG Roller++ Bar/20 21/15 eq:-0.616
    2. XG Roller++ Bar/14 eq:-0.716 (-0.100)

    The third play is this:

    3. XG Roller++ Bar/20 8/2 eq:-1.000 (-0.377)

    I decided to dwell on this a little more because for someone
    who tries to discredit the bots at every opportunity, this one
    is too big of a fish to just catch/release and well worth frying.

    What makes this such a big catch is that the bar/20 8/2 (third
    option above and "my"correct play) is not even considered by
    the bot. Showing that bots can be so terribly wrong may shake
    the faith of even the most devout among the bot worshipping
    gambling flock.

    First, Chow's position is very different than BlueDice's original
    position: XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
    which had already two other blots. In this one, there aren't other
    blots but there are two towers on X's 8 and 6 points instead.

    Playing the 6 from the 20 or 21 point is a "false similarity" and
    it shows how stupid one can be to automatically follow stupid
    rules without considering the rest of the board carefully first.

    Chow's having already posted the rollout allows me to readily
    state that the bot's rating bar/20 8/2 so low is a sure indication
    that it will immediately double if X plays that.

    And from there, what should jump at someone's face is that the
    cube will almost never stay at 4, since O will necessarily double
    again to 8. Thus, this is a perfect opportunity to jack up the cube,
    especially if X considers himself the underdog against the bot.

    Surely O can roll some numbers that will decimate X but with the
    cube at 2, the resulting scores will be 2/7 vs 3/7 or 4/7 vs 3/7 and
    extremely rarely 6/7 vs 3/7, which means that afterwards X will still
    have an almost equal chance of winning the match on the average.

    O can roll quite awkward numbers also and even in an in-between
    case of hitting X on the 2 point accompanied by awkward numbers,
    X's chances of winning could improve considerably. Some may even
    wish that they could switch to Nackgammon by taking a piece each
    from X's 8 and 6 points, to anchor them on O's 23 point, which would
    also improve X's chances of winning, although by less.

    Let's also consider that with the cube at 2, the bot still gives X about
    35% chance of winning to make the score 0/7 vs 5/7 and 8% chance
    of winning a gammon and the match with it. Since the bot's numbers
    are grossly wrong, X will actually fare much better.

    Now, if X gets to redouble to 4, O will be forced to redouble to 8 also
    and it will become a DMP game. Assuming that X doubles correctly,
    (per the bot's inaccurate equity calculations), X will win more since
    O will be forced to double even if incorrectly, (again all per the bot's inaccurate equity calculations); and also assuming that both X and O
    play checker moves like the bot would play.

    Needless to say, I suggest that X played by "Murat mutant" would do
    much better than the bot's estimates and I will leave it to you all to
    convince yourselves of that, perhaps with a little help from Axel. ;)

    Of couse, O will also win some matches with the cube at 8 in DMP
    games. What we need to do is weigh the sides' chances of winning
    at once with cube at 8 vs their chances of winning in playing on from
    all other different scores scores reached after the current game.

    Last night I played about 60 games from Chow's position against XG
    Roller++. X won more of the DMP's. O won more of the games with
    the cube at 2, which resulted in all combinations of N/away-N/away
    scores. I din't want to waste time playing those matches to the end
    since we can extrapolate the expected results, (even if by the bot's
    inaccurate calculations, which would be good enough for me also, as
    they would apply to both sides from that point on).

    I may be surprising you all, as I'm surprising myself, by bothering to
    write such stuff but don't get worried about my writing a book yet. :)

    MK

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