Based on past history, I do think that Tim is (perhaps only slightly) more likely than not to get this problem wrong. However, if the result is ultra-marginal, there's full credit for saying so, and no need to guess
which side of the border the rollout fell. In other words, I don't care
about the difference between (for example) 0.997 and 1.003 and
there is absolutely full credit for saying "ultra-marginal" take/pass
in this situation.

Paul

XGID=baBBBBBB----A----bbdbbA-A-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X X |
| O O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | | +---+
| X | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

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On 8/18/2021 6:27 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

XGID=baBBBBBB----A----bbdbbA-A-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X X |
| O O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | | +---+
| X | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

These positions tend to be sensitive to how many spare pips X
has to play. X would like to roll a 2 and two 6's in order to
escape his back checkers and cruise home to a gammon. If he
does escape one checker then he gains some more time to escape
the other. The other thing is that if O enters then X's task
should become easier because O may have to crunch her board.
I'm going to go with RD/T, but I expect that one can change
XG's verdict dramatically by moving X's outfield blot around.

---
Tim Chow

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On Wednesday, August 18, 2021 at 1:34:52 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

On 8/18/2021 6:27 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

XGID=baBBBBBB----A----bbdbbA-A-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X X |
| O O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | | +---+
| X | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

These positions tend to be sensitive to how many spare pips X
has to play. X would like to roll a 2 and two 6's in order to
escape his back checkers and cruise home to a gammon. If he
does escape one checker then he gains some more time to escape
the other. The other thing is that if O enters then X's task
should become easier because O may have to crunch her board.
I'm going to go with RD/T, but I expect that one can change
XG's verdict dramatically by moving X's outfield blot around.

That's correct but XG itself didn't solve this, and wrongly passed my cube. Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 63.87% (G:39.25% B:2.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.13% (G:6.62% B:0.25%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.73% (G:39.41% B:2.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.27% (G:6.67% B:0.26%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.623, Double=+1.242

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.815 (-0.114)
Redouble/Take: +0.929
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.071)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.803..+0.827)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.910..+0.948)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 23 minutes 41 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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