XGID=-b-BBBBAAA--dBa--b-bbb-AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X O |
| O X X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 133 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 10/16/2023 8:32 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-b-BBBBAAA--dBa--b-bbb-AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X  O        O    |   | O  O  O     X  X |
 | X           O    |   | O  O  O          |  |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 | O                |   |                  |
 | O                |   |                  |
 | O                |   | X  X  X  X     O |
 | O        X  X  X |   | X  X  X  X     O |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 133  O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Supposedly all normal prime vs prime positions are takes. But it seems
to me that if X makes a five prime vs O's broken four prime the market
is lost. And since there are a bunch of rolls that do just that I'll
ship it. D/T.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, October 16, 2023 at 9:43:48 AM UTC-4, ah...Clem wrote:

On 10/16/2023 8:32 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-b-BBBBAAA--dBa--b-bbb-AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X O |
| O X X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 133 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Supposedly all normal prime vs prime positions are takes. But it seems
to me that if X makes a five prime vs O's broken four prime the market
is lost. And since there are a bunch of rolls that do just that I'll
ship it. D/T.

Basically the opponent will never have a pass next turn unless he rolls an anti joker.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-b-BBBBAAA--dBa--b-bbb-AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X O |
| O X X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 133 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

There are plenty of players against which it would be blunder not to
cube here, because they would pass. Superficially, X's priming threat
looks very dangerous, and he also has a few fly shots that hit O's blot. However, XG doesn't double here. Even if X rolls 21, which is one of
his best rolls (23/22 8/7), O can usually take next turn. The main
point, of course, is that O has some decent structure of her own to
contain X's stragglers.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 59.52% (G:23.30% B:2.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.48% (G:10.43% B:0.53%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.64% (G:23.62% B:2.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.36% (G:10.48% B:0.54%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.448
Double/Take: +0.355 (-0.093)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.552)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.4%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.433..+0.464)
Confidence Double: ± 0.023 (+0.333..+0.378)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)