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  • 21 to play from the bar

    From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to All on Sat Oct 14 11:00:52 2023
    XGID=------E-C---bDa--bccdB---A:1:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X | | 2 |
    | O X | | X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 173 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 21

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to ah...Clem on Sat Oct 14 11:05:48 2023
    On 10/14/2023 11:00 AM, ah...Clem wrote:
    XGID=------E-C---bDa--bccdB---A:1:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X | | 2 |
    | O X | | X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 173 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 21

    We're way behind in the pip count, so I would stay back and start
    trying to build my board. Bar/24 6/4.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 16 09:40:51 2023
    XGID=------E-C---bDa--bccdB---A:1:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X | | 2 |
    | O X | | X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 173 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 21

    As Tim points out, staying back and building the board is the right
    approach. But there are three ways to do that, and since the five point
    is more valuable than the four point I opted for Bar/23 6/5 instead of
    entering with the ace and either slotting or bringing one down.


    It's not a huge error, but I'm making a mental note that extra contact
    is better than slotting the five vs four. Bar/24 13/11 makes a
    respectable showing in the rollout, and at least this time the odd 8/6
    is behind my play.



    1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 6/4 eq:-0.785
    Player: 19.53% (G:2.49% B:0.09%)
    Opponent: 80.47% (G:27.40% B:0.56%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.792..-0.777) - [99.9%]
    Duration: 5 minutes 25 seconds

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 13/11 eq:-0.802 (-0.017)
    Player: 18.30% (G:2.29% B:0.08%)
    Opponent: 81.70% (G:26.04% B:0.42%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.809..-0.794) - [0.1%]
    Duration: 5 minutes 08 seconds

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/23 6/5 eq:-0.818 (-0.033)
    Player: 18.17% (G:2.03% B:0.08%)
    Opponent: 81.83% (G:27.00% B:0.41%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.825..-0.812) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 5 minutes 37 seconds

    4. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/6 eq:-0.836 (-0.051)
    Player: 16.84% (G:1.91% B:0.08%)
    Opponent: 83.16% (G:25.84% B:0.47%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.843..-0.829) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 5 minutes 11 seconds


    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to ah...Clem on Mon Oct 16 22:08:19 2023
    On Monday, October 16, 2023 at 9:40:55 AM UTC-4, ah...Clem wrote:
    XGID=------E-C---bDa--bccdB---A:1:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X | | 2 |
    | O X | | X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 173 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 21
    As Tim points out, staying back and building the board is the right approach. But there are three ways to do that, and since the five point
    is more valuable than the four point I opted for Bar/23 6/5 instead of entering with the ace and either slotting or bringing one down.


    It's not a huge error, but I'm making a mental note that extra contact
    is better than slotting the five vs four. Bar/24 13/11 makes a
    respectable showing in the rollout, and at least this time the odd 8/6
    is behind my play.



    1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 6/4 eq:-0.785
    Player: 19.53% (G:2.49% B:0.09%)
    Opponent: 80.47% (G:27.40% B:0.56%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.792..-0.777) - [99.9%]
    Duration: 5 minutes 25 seconds

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 13/11 eq:-0.802 (-0.017)
    Player: 18.30% (G:2.29% B:0.08%)
    Opponent: 81.70% (G:26.04% B:0.42%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.809..-0.794) - [0.1%]
    Duration: 5 minutes 08 seconds

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/23 6/5 eq:-0.818 (-0.033)
    Player: 18.17% (G:2.03% B:0.08%)
    Opponent: 81.83% (G:27.00% B:0.41%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.825..-0.812) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 5 minutes 37 seconds

    4. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/6 eq:-0.836 (-0.051)
    Player: 16.84% (G:1.91% B:0.08%)
    Opponent: 83.16% (G:25.84% B:0.47%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.843..-0.829) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 5 minutes 11 seconds


    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    It's not a huge error in the breakdown of numbers because there's only so much equity a play like this can give up. Conceptually it's a monster error.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)