• Slot to contain? 5

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Oct 10 08:45:58 2023
    XGID=-aBB-BB-BA---B-----bcdbcB-:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O X |
    | X | | O O O O O X |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | X | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | X X | | X X X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 79 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 42

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Oct 12 08:31:32 2023
    XGID=-aBB-BB-BA---B-----bcdbcB-:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O X |
    | X | | O O O O O X |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | X | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | X X | | X X X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 79 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 42

    This one is difficult IMO. Slotting 13/7 is the DMP play but it
    loses more gammons. According to XG, it isn't quite worth it.
    Part of the problem is that even if X makes his bar point, he'll
    have only a broken six-prime and not a solid six-prime.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/9 eq:-0.171
    Player: 41.05% (G:4.09% B:0.13%)
    Opponent: 58.95% (G:18.43% B:1.49%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.178..-0.164) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:-0.208 (-0.037)
    Player: 44.75% (G:4.06% B:0.12%)
    Opponent: 55.25% (G:28.03% B:4.59%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.216..-0.200) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/11 9/5 eq:-0.215 (-0.044)
    Player: 39.97% (G:3.68% B:0.12%)
    Opponent: 60.03% (G:19.81% B:1.82%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.222..-0.207) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/6 eq:-0.222 (-0.051)
    Player: 40.84% (G:3.87% B:0.12%)
    Opponent: 59.16% (G:21.69% B:2.36%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.229..-0.214) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 9/5 8/6 eq:-0.232 (-0.061)
    Player: 38.70% (G:3.70% B:0.12%)
    Opponent: 61.30% (G:19.04% B:1.60%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.240..-0.225) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a-BBBB-BA---B-----bcdbcB-:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O X |
    | X | | O O O O O X |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | X | | X X X X | | 2 |
    | X X | | X X X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 79 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 42

    1. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.303
    Player: 60.58% (G:6.58% B:0.20%)
    Opponent: 39.42% (G:21.07% B:3.65%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.295..+0.311) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/11 9/5 eq:+0.233 (-0.070)
    Player: 54.76% (G:6.81% B:0.20%)
    Opponent: 45.24% (G:14.65% B:1.50%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.225..+0.241) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/9 eq:+0.218 (-0.085)
    Player: 54.10% (G:6.44% B:0.21%)
    Opponent: 45.90% (G:14.65% B:1.25%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.210..+0.227) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 9/3 eq:+0.193 (-0.110)
    Player: 52.55% (G:6.60% B:0.21%)
    Opponent: 47.45% (G:13.32% B:1.04%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.185..+0.201) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)