From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Thu Oct 12 08:31:32 2023
XGID=-aBB-BB-BA---B-----bcdbcB-:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O O X |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 79 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 42
This one is difficult IMO. Slotting 13/7 is the DMP play but it
loses more gammons. According to XG, it isn't quite worth it.
Part of the problem is that even if X makes his bar point, he'll
have only a broken six-prime and not a solid six-prime.
1. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/9 eq:-0.171
Player: 41.05% (G:4.09% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 58.95% (G:18.43% B:1.49%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.178..-0.164) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:-0.208 (-0.037)
Player: 44.75% (G:4.06% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 55.25% (G:28.03% B:4.59%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.216..-0.200) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 13/11 9/5 eq:-0.215 (-0.044)
Player: 39.97% (G:3.68% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 60.03% (G:19.81% B:1.82%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.222..-0.207) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/6 eq:-0.222 (-0.051)
Player: 40.84% (G:3.87% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 59.16% (G:21.69% B:2.36%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.229..-0.214) - [0.0%]
5. Rollout¹ 9/5 8/6 eq:-0.232 (-0.061)
Player: 38.70% (G:3.70% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 61.30% (G:19.04% B:1.60%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.240..-0.225) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-a-BBBB-BA---B-----bcdbcB-:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O O X |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 79 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 42
1. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.303
Player: 60.58% (G:6.58% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 39.42% (G:21.07% B:3.65%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.295..+0.311) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/11 9/5 eq:+0.233 (-0.070)
Player: 54.76% (G:6.81% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 45.24% (G:14.65% B:1.50%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.225..+0.241) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/9 eq:+0.218 (-0.085)
Player: 54.10% (G:6.44% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 45.90% (G:14.65% B:1.25%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.210..+0.227) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 9/3 eq:+0.193 (-0.110)
Player: 52.55% (G:6.60% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 47.45% (G:13.32% B:1.04%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.185..+0.201) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)