On Wednesday, October 11, 2023 at 8:48:34 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=--aBBBC-B----D--abad--bbb-:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 110 O: 91 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51
Several factors here point *against* the bold 13/7:
1. O has a four-point board with no blots, which is pretty strong.
2. The alternative of 13/12 13/8 does a fairly good job of containing
O's checker.
3. X is not that far behind in the pip count.
4. 13/7 doesn't quite lock up the game if missed; only about half of
X's rolls will complete the six-prime.
The last of these factors is very important; see the variant.
1. Rollout¹ 13/12 13/8 eq:+0.434
Player: 74.27% (G:5.29% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 25.73% (G:3.51% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.429..+0.439) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.282 (-0.153)
Player: 68.29% (G:6.25% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 31.71% (G:7.20% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.276..+0.287) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/5 eq:+0.273 (-0.161)
Player: 67.61% (G:4.55% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 32.39% (G:3.16% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.267..+0.278) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 13/12 6/1 eq:+0.248 (-0.186)
Player: 67.20% (G:4.46% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 32.80% (G:5.45% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.242..+0.254) - [0.0%]
5. Rollout¹ 8/2* eq:+0.130 (-0.305)
Player: 64.11% (G:8.04% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 35.89% (G:16.34% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.122..+0.137) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=--aBBBC-B----D--abad--bbb-:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 110 O: 91 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62
1. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/7 eq:+0.349
Player: 71.42% (G:6.76% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 28.58% (G:8.88% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.344..+0.354) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/5 eq:+0.293 (-0.056)
Player: 68.44% (G:4.53% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 31.56% (G:2.71% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.288..+0.298) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
Wouldn't it make more sense for the variant to change the roll to [61] instead of [62] keeping as much of the position true to the original as possible?
Stick
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