On Tuesday, October 10, 2023 at 8:45:11 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=---a-BBCC----BbA-d-dcB-a--:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O | | O O X O |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | | +---+
| X X | | X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 150 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63
I think this is one of the easier problems in this series. All of
Magriel's criteria point to a bold play, so 15/9 13/10 shouldn't be
a shock. Making the 9pt would be a huge gain for X.
1. Rollout¹ 15/9 13/10 eq:+0.287
Player: 54.68% (G:8.74% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 45.32% (G:13.51% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.278..+0.297) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 15/9 8/5 eq:+0.234 (-0.054)
Player: 52.07% (G:8.41% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 47.93% (G:11.41% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.225..+0.242) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 15/6 eq:+0.191 (-0.096)
Player: 49.53% (G:7.27% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 50.47% (G:8.04% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.181..+0.201) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
I think most players would play 15/9 but I'm not sure of the distribution of those who slot 15/9 who play 13/10 compared to 8/5 and the latter is still a decent sized error.
Stick
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