As a bonus question, what would you play at DMP?

XGID=-BB--aDBB---dA---dBea-----:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O | +---+
| O X | | O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 9/26/2023 10:41 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

As a bonus question, what would you play at DMP?

XGID=-BB--aDBB---dA---dBea-----:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O  X |   | O  O             | +---+
 |             O  X |   | O                | | 2 |
 |             O    |   | O                | +---+
 |             O    |   | O                |
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 | O                |   | X                |
 | O                |   | X                |
 | O           X  X |   | X           X  X |
 | O           X  X |   | X  O        X  X |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 109  O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 42

X is ahead in the race and is not eager to get into a blot hitting
contest with the made ace and deuce points. But O has no board and a
homeboard blot to shoot at so maybe a blitzing play is right?

13/9 7/5* puts a checker on the roof against a three point board with 13
in the zone along with O having the aforementioned no board and a
homeboard blot. Put that way, blitzing seems obvious.

Well, not completely obvious since the prosaic 13/9 looks sound. And is probably the DMP play.

I'll blitz. 13/9 7/5*.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-BB--aDBB---dA---dBea-----:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O | +---+
| O X | | O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 42

The most important lesson of this position is that the plausible-looking
13/7 is rated as a whopper with cheese by the rollout. It's not so much
that 13/7 is bad in and of itself; it's that O's weak position means
that X has bolder and better plays available. The two leading
candidates are blitzing with 13/9 7/5*, and making the 4pt. At DMP, the
bot favors 8/4 6/4, which duplicates O's 3's and 1's to hit and cover.
For money, XG slightly favors the aggressive 13/9 7/5*.

These shenanigans are enabled by O's weak board. See the variant, where
13/7 is tied for first place.

1. Rollout¹ 13/9 7/5* eq:+0.369
Player: 63.89% (G:29.75% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 36.11% (G:6.80% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.361..+0.377) - [99.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/4 eq:+0.353 (-0.016)
Player: 66.08% (G:21.01% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 33.92% (G:4.85% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.345..+0.360) - [0.1%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/3 7/5* eq:+0.290 (-0.079)
Player: 61.78% (G:28.09% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 38.22% (G:8.17% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.281..+0.299) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 7/5* 5/1 eq:+0.274 (-0.095)
Player: 62.99% (G:23.21% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 37.01% (G:7.68% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.265..+0.282) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 18/14 7/5* eq:+0.274 (-0.095)
Player: 61.03% (G:32.14% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 38.97% (G:11.41% B:1.07%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.265..+0.282) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/4 eq:+0.238 (-0.131)
Player: 62.92% (G:16.43% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 37.08% (G:5.18% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.231..+0.246) - [0.0%]

7. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.211 (-0.158)
Player: 63.12% (G:14.31% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 36.88% (G:5.85% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.201..+0.220) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BB--aDBB---dA---dBd--b---:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O |
| O X | | O O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ 13/9 7/5* eq:+0.374
Player: 58.35% (G:22.74% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 41.65% (G:8.56% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.369..+0.379) - [78.3%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.371 (-0.003)
Player: 62.06% (G:10.82% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 37.94% (G:5.35% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.365..+0.377) - [21.7%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/5* 5/1 eq:+0.360 (-0.014)
Player: 58.41% (G:18.03% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 41.59% (G:8.99% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.354..+0.366) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/4 eq:+0.351 (-0.023)
Player: 59.59% (G:12.95% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 40.41% (G:5.52% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.345..+0.357) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/4 eq:+0.335 (-0.039)
Player: 57.71% (G:15.70% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 42.29% (G:6.35% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.329..+0.341) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 10:15:45 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-BB--aDBB---dA---dBea-----:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O | +---+
| O X | | O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 42
The most important lesson of this position is that the plausible-looking 13/7 is rated as a whopper with cheese by the rollout. It's not so much
that 13/7 is bad in and of itself; it's that O's weak position means
that X has bolder and better plays available. The two leading
candidates are blitzing with 13/9 7/5*, and making the 4pt. At DMP, the
bot favors 8/4 6/4, which duplicates O's 3's and 1's to hit and cover.
For money, XG slightly favors the aggressive 13/9 7/5*.

These shenanigans are enabled by O's weak board. See the variant, where
13/7 is tied for first place.

1. Rollout¹ 13/9 7/5* eq:+0.369
Player: 63.89% (G:29.75% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 36.11% (G:6.80% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.361..+0.377) - [99.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/4 eq:+0.353 (-0.016)
Player: 66.08% (G:21.01% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 33.92% (G:4.85% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.345..+0.360) - [0.1%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/3 7/5* eq:+0.290 (-0.079)
Player: 61.78% (G:28.09% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 38.22% (G:8.17% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.281..+0.299) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 7/5* 5/1 eq:+0.274 (-0.095)
Player: 62.99% (G:23.21% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 37.01% (G:7.68% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.265..+0.282) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 18/14 7/5* eq:+0.274 (-0.095)
Player: 61.03% (G:32.14% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 38.97% (G:11.41% B:1.07%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.265..+0.282) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/4 eq:+0.238 (-0.131)
Player: 62.92% (G:16.43% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 37.08% (G:5.18% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.231..+0.246) - [0.0%]

7. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.211 (-0.158)
Player: 63.12% (G:14.31% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 36.88% (G:5.85% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.201..+0.220) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BB--aDBB---dA---dBd--b---:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O |
| O X | | O O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 109 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ 13/9 7/5* eq:+0.374
Player: 58.35% (G:22.74% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 41.65% (G:8.56% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.369..+0.379) - [78.3%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.371 (-0.003)
Player: 62.06% (G:10.82% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 37.94% (G:5.35% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.365..+0.377) - [21.7%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/5* 5/1 eq:+0.360 (-0.014)
Player: 58.41% (G:18.03% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 41.59% (G:8.99% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.354..+0.366) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/4 eq:+0.351 (-0.023)
Player: 59.59% (G:12.95% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 40.41% (G:5.52% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.345..+0.357) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/4 eq:+0.335 (-0.039)
Player: 57.71% (G:15.70% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 42.29% (G:6.35% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.329..+0.341) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

For me when you say "At DMP, the bot favors 8/4 6/4" it implies the plays are close. I assume it's the same for everyone else and perhaps the only thing that differs is what close means to each individual person. Here at dmp making the four point is
ahead by around .040 or 2% which to me is more than 'favors'.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)