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  • Unlimited game cube action

    From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to All on Sun Sep 24 11:52:19 2023
    XGID=a----BDBaAA-cDb--c-c-bA---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X X O X | | X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action



    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Mon Sep 25 08:08:41 2023
    On 9/24/2023 11:52 AM, ah....Clem wrote:

    XGID=a----BDBaAA-cDb--c-c-bA---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X  O        O    |   | O     O  X       |
     | X  O        O    |   | O     O          |
     | X           O    |   | O                |
     | X                |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  | O |                  |
     |                  |   | X                |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O              X |   | X  X             |
     | O     X  X  O  X |   | X  X             |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 141  O: 153 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    X has ten checkers in the zone and has escaped one of his back
    checkers. He has a clear lead in the pip count and is threatening
    to hit a second checker. Although X has only a two-point board at
    the moment, I don't think O can take this one. In fact, maybe X
    is too good. I usually double this sort of position OTB but am
    often surprised when XG dings me, saying it's TG. Let me go with
    TG/pass.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to All on Tue Sep 26 12:18:58 2023
    Like the previous blitz or prime position, this one is from the facebook
    humans vs XG page where some very skilled players (NeilKaz, Will
    Snellings) got it wrong. I did too.

    The actual position used Jacoby, so the TG question was moot. I changed
    it here because it makes the position more interesting. The consensus
    was that it was a pass due to the liklihood that O gets blitzed off the
    board, but XG says it's a medium error to pass this one.

    Comments from moderator David Potter are below. XGID=a----BDBaAA-cDb--c-c-bA---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X X O X | | X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 68.48% (G:27.67% B:0.97%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.52% (G:6.53% B:0.27%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 68.47% (G:28.38% B:1.00%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.53% (G:6.75% B:0.30%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.588, Double=+1.185

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.821 (-0.120)
    Double/Take: +0.941
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.059)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.806..+0.837)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+0.921..+0.961)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

    Duration: 9 minutes 07 seconds

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10




    We vote Double/Pass but a 2K roll out says it's quite an error to pass
    this. Let's look at the board to see what's going on.

    White (X) has a two point board and has a triple shot at Black's (O's)
    blot. It looks strong but black isn't doing too badly. Black has made
    the 4pt, has no dead checkers and a nice outfield structure. White still
    has a checker to bring around and it's hard for White to hit and make
    another inner board point next go so that gives Black some time to make
    an anchor or fight back in some way. Black has some good assets here and
    has a fairly easy take while White is not overwhelmingly strong.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)