• I would have preferred not to have to move at all

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Aug 17 09:07:20 2021
    XGID=--BCCBB---b--B------dAcae-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O X O O O |
    | X | | O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 94 O: 66 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Aug 19 09:49:49 2021
    XGID=--BCCBB---b--B------dAcae-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O X O O O |
    | X | | O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 94 O: 66 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    X would like to keep his rear checker where it is for maximum contact,
    but to do that, he has to compromise his position in some other way.
    According to XG, O's weak board gives X the license to leave a blot
    on his midpoint. Compare with the variant below.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:+0.156
    Player: 51.25% (G:12.40% B:0.52%)
    Opponent: 48.75% (G:1.85% B:0.01%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.148..+0.165) - [99.9%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/9 4/1 eq:+0.139 (-0.018)
    Player: 50.79% (G:13.15% B:0.58%)
    Opponent: 49.21% (G:2.85% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.131..+0.146) - [0.1%]

    3. Rollout¹ 5/1 4/1 eq:+0.027 (-0.129)
    Player: 48.30% (G:9.29% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 51.70% (G:2.44% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.018..+0.037) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 21/17 4/1 eq:-0.083 (-0.239)
    Player: 47.76% (G:7.47% B:0.37%)
    Opponent: 52.24% (G:1.80% B:0.01%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.095..-0.070) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=--BCCBB---b--B------dAcbd-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O X O O O |
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    | O | | X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 94 O: 67 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    1. Rollout¹ 5/1 4/1 eq:-0.257
    Player: 41.21% (G:7.38% B:0.23%)
    Opponent: 58.79% (G:3.15% B:0.01%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.263..-0.250) - [99.5%]

    2. Rollout¹ 21/17 4/1 eq:-0.270 (-0.013)
    Player: 42.10% (G:4.21% B:0.12%)
    Opponent: 57.90% (G:2.47% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.277..-0.262) - [0.5%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:-0.329 (-0.072)
    Player: 39.43% (G:7.10% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 60.57% (G:3.49% B:0.03%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.336..-0.322) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 21/14 eq:-0.331 (-0.074)
    Player: 39.37% (G:2.73% B:0.07%)
    Opponent: 60.63% (G:1.83% B:0.01%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.336..-0.325) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 21/18 13/9 eq:-0.350 (-0.093)
    Player: 38.96% (G:5.29% B:0.15%)
    Opponent: 61.04% (G:4.64% B:0.03%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.358..-0.342) - [0.0%]

    6. Rollout¹ 13/9 4/1 eq:-0.361 (-0.104)
    Player: 38.41% (G:7.96% B:0.32%)
    Opponent: 61.59% (G:5.06% B:0.06%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.369..-0.353) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)