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  • 0-1 backgame, next turn

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Sep 15 08:25:53 2023
    XGID=bcBE-CC----------bccb-----:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O | +---+
    | O O | | O O | | 2 |
    | O | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | X |
    | | O | X |
    | | | X X X O |
    | | | X X X X O |
    | | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 52 O: 187 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 33

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Sep 15 10:37:53 2023
    On 9/15/2023 8:25 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=bcBE-CC----------bccb-----:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |             O  O |   | O  O             | +---+
     |             O  O |   | O  O             | | 2 |
     |                O |   | O                | +---+
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  | O |          X       |
     |                  | O |          X       |
     |                  |   | X  X     X     O |
     |                  |   | X  X     X  X  O |
     |                  |   | X  X     X  X  O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 52  O: 187 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 33


    Ripping four off seems a bit too aggressive. If X can avoid leaving a
    shot that would seem to be best. I'm not very good at shot counting, but
    6/off 3/off(2) seems to leave fewer shots than 6/off 6/3(2). And
    stripping both the 5 and 6 points with 6/off 5/2 3/off leaves the
    devastating 65 roll to expose a double shot.

    So, 6/off 3/off(2).

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Sep 17 08:39:26 2023
    XGID=bcBE-CC----------bccb-----:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O | +---+
    | O O | | O O | | 2 |
    | O | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | X |
    | | O | X |
    | | | X X X O |
    | | | X X X X O |
    | | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 52 O: 187 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 33

    The logic here is really the same as in the previous problem. Just
    clear from the rear. Psychologically, though, it can be difficult
    to resist the temptation to bear off at least one checker with such
    a roll.

    1. Rollout¹ 6/3(3) 5/2 eq:+1.275
    Player: 78.88% (G:63.22% B:16.35%)
    Opponent: 21.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+1.262..+1.289) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 6/3(2) 6/Off eq:+1.191 (-0.084)
    Player: 76.50% (G:59.57% B:17.57%)
    Opponent: 23.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+1.176..+1.207) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 6/Off 3/Off(2) eq:+1.133 (-0.143)
    Player: 73.60% (G:54.99% B:22.88%)
    Opponent: 26.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+1.120..+1.145) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Sep 27 15:10:34 2023
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 8:39:30 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=bcBE-CC----------bccb-----:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O | +---+
    | O O | | O O | | 2 |
    | O | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | X |
    | | O | X |
    | | | X X X O |
    | | | X X X X O |
    | | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 52 O: 187 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 33
    The logic here is really the same as in the previous problem. Just
    clear from the rear. Psychologically, though, it can be difficult
    to resist the temptation to bear off at least one checker with such
    a roll.

    1. Rollout¹ 6/3(3) 5/2 eq:+1.275
    Player: 78.88% (G:63.22% B:16.35%)
    Opponent: 21.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+1.262..+1.289) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 6/3(2) 6/Off eq:+1.191 (-0.084)
    Player: 76.50% (G:59.57% B:17.57%)
    Opponent: 23.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+1.176..+1.207) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 6/Off 3/Off(2) eq:+1.133 (-0.143)
    Player: 73.60% (G:54.99% B:22.88%)
    Opponent: 26.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+1.120..+1.145) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    The logic is just clear from the rear because it's safest and a gammon is a sure thing as long as we don't get hit. (and backgammon nearly as likely because of the speedy bear off) You'd have to wildly change the position but if you move a lot of
    checkers naturally to the opp's home board you will be able to see a point where it's correct and clearly correct to rip off checkers here instead of playing safe overall.

    Stick

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