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  • Rollout: Pay now or pay later?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Sep 14 08:50:14 2023
    XGID=-C-ab-FBB---b---B--bbcba--:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | 6 |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X |
    | O X X | | X O X |
    | O X X | | X O O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51

    I opted pay now, but XG says to pay later. The strength of O's
    board is a key factor (see variant).

    1. Rollout¹ 7/6 7/2 eq:-0.302
    Player: 42.67% (G:9.72% B:0.13%)
    Opponent: 57.33% (G:18.22% B:0.67%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.315..-0.289) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/3* eq:-0.372 (-0.070)
    Player: 40.73% (G:7.33% B:0.12%)
    Opponent: 59.27% (G:19.58% B:0.62%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.383..-0.360) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 16/15 16/11 eq:-0.486 (-0.184)
    Player: 36.84% (G:9.06% B:0.26%)
    Opponent: 63.16% (G:21.19% B:0.62%)
    Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.503..-0.469) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-C-ab-FBB---b---B--ccca---:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O |
    | X | | O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | 6 |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X |
    | O X X | | X O X |
    | O X X | | X O O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51

    1. Rollout¹ 16/15 16/11 eq:-0.281
    Player: 41.84% (G:10.49% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 58.16% (G:16.51% B:0.50%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.288..-0.273) - [90.9%]

    2. Rollout¹ 7/6 7/2 eq:-0.289 (-0.008)
    Player: 42.89% (G:9.69% B:0.13%)
    Opponent: 57.11% (G:16.95% B:0.67%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.298..-0.279) - [8.9%]

    3. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/3* eq:-0.297 (-0.016)
    Player: 43.41% (G:8.62% B:0.15%)
    Opponent: 56.59% (G:17.34% B:0.54%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.306..-0.288) - [0.2%]

    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

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