Not a contrived position, this actually came up today. ND? D/T? D/P? TG?


XGID=-babdaDBB-A--B---aAd-AAA--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:X O:O
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O X X X |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X O |
| | | X O |
| X X | | X O O O |
| X X X | | X O O O O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 174 O: 251 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

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On 9/5/2023 6:19 PM, ah...Clem wrote:

Not a contrived position, this actually came up today. ND? D/T? D/P? TG?

XGID=-babdaDBB-A--B---aAd-AAA--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:X O:O
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O X X X |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X O |
| | | X O |
| X X | | X O O O |
| X X X | | X O O O O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 174 O: 251 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

The bot verdict cannot possibly be trusted here. But I would not double
until I had a better prime.

---
Tim Chow

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XGID=-babdaDBB-A--B---aAd-AAA--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O X X X |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X O |
| | | X O |
| X X | | X O O O |
| X X X | | X O O O O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 174 O: 251 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action


As Tim no doubt correctly points out, this is not the kind of position
where the bot verdict can be relied on. But it's the best I've got, so
here it is.


Clearly, O is poised to lose a lot of gammons but also to turn it around
and have an efficient recube. Since I didn't understand which way was
up I held the cube here. XG thinks it's a narrow cube and a double
whopper to pass. Rollout, and the various lower settings basically agree
for what that's worth.

I'm not going to sweat over missing a cube here.



Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 61.84% (G:36.65% B:3.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.16% (G:6.71% B:0.33%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.77% (G:35.80% B:3.74%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.23% (G:6.77% B:0.70%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.545, Double=+1.202

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.752 (-0.026)
Double/Take: +0.777
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.223)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.039 (+0.713..+0.791)
Confidence Double: ± 0.057 (+0.721..+0.834)

Double Decision confidence: 76.7%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 34 minutes 03 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On 9/11/2023 3:01 PM, ah....Clem wrote:

  Confidence No Double: ± 0.039 (+0.713..+0.791)
  Confidence Double:    ± 0.057 (+0.721..+0.834)

At minimum, you should roll out enough trials so that the
error bars aren't so large that you can drive a truck through
them.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On 9/12/2023 9:25 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 9/11/2023 3:01 PM, ah....Clem wrote:

   Confidence No Double: ± 0.039 (+0.713..+0.791)
   Confidence Double:    ± 0.057 (+0.721..+0.834)

At minimum, you should roll out enough trials so that the
error bars aren't so large that you can drive a truck through
them.

Do you think throwing more cycles at it will produce meaningful results?
I don't.


My take is that if the evaluation is wrong the analysis wrong and the
rollout is an exercise in crunching meaningless numbers. GIGO.


The reason I posted this is that I didn't believe the bot result and
wanted some expert human opinion.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 9/12/2023 11:14 AM, ah....Clem wrote:

On 9/12/2023 9:25 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 9/11/2023 3:01 PM, ah....Clem wrote:

   Confidence No Double: ± 0.039 (+0.713..+0.791)
   Confidence Double:    ± 0.057 (+0.721..+0.834)

At minimum, you should roll out enough trials so that the
error bars aren't so large that you can drive a truck through
them.

Do you think throwing more cycles at it will produce meaningful results?
I don't.

My take is that if the evaluation is wrong the analysis wrong and the
rollout is an exercise in crunching meaningless numbers.  GIGO.

But in that case, why did you do the rollout at all? My point
is that if you've made the decision to do a rollout, then it
doesn't make sense to do a rollout with so few trials. You
wouldn't post a rollout with only 1 rollout trial, would you?
That would make less sense than posting no rollout at all.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On September 5, 2023 at 4:19:55 PM UTC-6, ah...Clem wrote:

Not a contrived position, this actually
came up today. ND? D/T? D/P? TG? XGID=-babdaDBB-A--B---aAd-AAA--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

Wow! Interesting position with many
possibilities. :) It all depends on what
the next roll will be... ;)

Tim gave the math "21^7 < 2^32 < 21^8"
that spoiled it for some of us cheaters.

You must be still honest to not use it... ;)

MK

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Monday, September 11, 2023 at 3:01:20 PM UTC-4, ah....Clem wrote:

XGID=-babdaDBB-A--B---aAd-AAA--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O X X X |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X O |
| | | X O |
| X X | | X O O O |
| X X X | | X O O O O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 174 O: 251 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
As Tim no doubt correctly points out, this is not the kind of position
where the bot verdict can be relied on. But it's the best I've got, so
here it is.

Clearly, O is poised to lose a lot of gammons but also to turn it around
and have an efficient recube. Since I didn't understand which way was
up I held the cube here. XG thinks it's a narrow cube and a double
whopper to pass. Rollout, and the various lower settings basically agree
for what that's worth.

I'm not going to sweat over missing a cube here.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 61.84% (G:36.65% B:3.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.16% (G:6.71% B:0.33%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.77% (G:35.80% B:3.74%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.23% (G:6.77% B:0.70%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.545, Double=+1.202

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.752 (-0.026)
Double/Take: +0.777
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.223)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.039 (+0.713..+0.791)
Confidence Double: ± 0.057 (+0.721..+0.834)

Double Decision confidence: 76.7%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 34 minutes 03 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

I think it's a clear cube and a clear take.

Stick

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