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  • Can't run with this 65

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Aug 25 08:36:52 2023
    XGID=-Baa-BC-C--BbB---bbc-bbA--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O X |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X O O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 125 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Aug 27 09:43:32 2023
    XGID=-Baa-BC-C--BbB---bbc-bbA--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O X |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X O O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 125 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65

    Here again, I thought that risking getting another checker sent behind
    O's broken prime was inadvisable, especially since I have a race lead
    and my game plan is to escape my straggler safely. The trouble is that
    the safe play of 11/6 11/5 leaves us with an inflexible position. We
    have 10 checkers in the zone (not counting the checkers on the 11pt)
    and we have the same number of home-board points as our opponent, so a
    blitz has a reasonable chance of success.

    In the variant, I have moved X's 6pt spare to his midpoint. This
    reduces X's racing lead, so you might think it would make him more
    willing to risk getting hit. But in the variant, he has only 9 checkers
    in the zone, and 11/6 11/5 creates a flexible spare distribution.

    1. Rollout¹ 8/3* 8/2* eq:-0.084
    Player: 45.37% (G:24.57% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 54.63% (G:22.30% B:1.99%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.095..-0.073) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 11/5 8/3* eq:-0.115 (-0.031)
    Player: 45.58% (G:21.68% B:0.74%)
    Opponent: 54.42% (G:22.43% B:1.30%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.128..-0.101) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 11/6 11/5 eq:-0.188 (-0.105)
    Player: 43.39% (G:15.66% B:0.42%)
    Opponent: 56.61% (G:13.93% B:0.56%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.200..-0.176) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-Baa-BB-C--BbC---bbc-bbA--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O X |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | O X X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X O O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 132 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65

    1. Rollout¹ 11/6 11/5 eq:-0.201
    Player: 43.41% (G:14.94% B:0.43%)
    Opponent: 56.59% (G:15.84% B:0.61%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.212..-0.190) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/2* eq:-0.243 (-0.042)
    Player: 43.29% (G:16.20% B:0.41%)
    Opponent: 56.71% (G:20.93% B:1.06%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.255..-0.231) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 11/5 8/3* eq:-0.261 (-0.061)
    Player: 43.18% (G:18.30% B:0.61%)
    Opponent: 56.82% (G:25.04% B:1.32%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.274..-0.249) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 11/6 8/2* eq:-0.263 (-0.063)
    Player: 42.86% (G:17.47% B:0.49%)
    Opponent: 57.14% (G:22.20% B:1.16%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.277..-0.250) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 8/3* 8/2* eq:-0.264 (-0.063)
    Player: 41.48% (G:19.91% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 58.52% (G:24.99% B:2.03%)
    Confidence: ±0.022 (-0.286..-0.242) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Aug 30 21:22:52 2023
    On 8/25/2023 8:36 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-Baa-BC-C--BbB---bbc-bbA--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O  O |   | O     O  O  X    |
     | X           O  O |   | O     O  O       |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |             X    |   | X                |
     | O  X        X    |   | X  X           X |
     | O  X        X    |   | X  X     O  O  X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 125  O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65

    Whacking two is always worth a good look, but seems too lose here. Ahead
    in the race, clearing the eleven and leaving no additional shots seems thematic, so I'll do that.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)