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  • Lots of ways to blunder

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Aug 24 08:50:52 2023
    XGID=---a-BDaB-BAbC---b-bc-bbA-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X X O | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 144 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 31

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Aug 26 09:31:47 2023
    XGID=---a-BDaB-BAbC---b-bc-bbA-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X X O | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 144 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 31

    With O having a four-point board, I thought that hitting loose in my
    board was too dangerous. But X is far behind in the pip count, so
    there is considerable upside to hitting twice if X is not hit back.

    1. Rollout¹ 8/7* 6/3* eq:-0.191
    Player: 47.60% (G:15.37% B:0.65%)
    Opponent: 52.40% (G:30.15% B:4.08%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.204..-0.178) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 11/7* eq:-0.229 (-0.038)
    Player: 46.16% (G:12.15% B:0.54%)
    Opponent: 53.84% (G:26.21% B:0.94%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.243..-0.214) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 10/7* 7/6 eq:-0.302 (-0.111)
    Player: 44.40% (G:12.40% B:0.63%)
    Opponent: 55.60% (G:27.60% B:1.25%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.313..-0.291) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 10/7* 6/5 eq:-0.334 (-0.143)
    Player: 44.36% (G:11.59% B:0.54%)
    Opponent: 55.64% (G:30.94% B:2.98%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.348..-0.320) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 11/10 6/3* eq:-0.430 (-0.238)
    Player: 40.71% (G:11.25% B:0.56%)
    Opponent: 59.29% (G:30.48% B:0.75%)
    Confidence: ±0.020 (-0.450..-0.409) - [0.0%]

    6. Rollout¹ 11/8 6/5 eq:-0.477 (-0.286)
    Player: 39.50% (G:8.68% B:0.42%)
    Opponent: 60.50% (G:23.72% B:0.32%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.490..-0.465) - [0.0%]

    7. Rollout¹ 10/7* 8/7 eq:-0.489 (-0.298)
    Player: 41.71% (G:10.60% B:0.55%)
    Opponent: 58.29% (G:33.12% B:3.09%)
    Confidence: ±0.019 (-0.509..-0.470) - [0.0%]

    8. Rollout¹ 8/5 8/7* eq:-0.501 (-0.310)
    Player: 39.94% (G:11.02% B:0.48%)
    Opponent: 60.06% (G:30.70% B:1.56%)
    Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.519..-0.484) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=---a-BDaB-BAbC----bbcbb-A-:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O X X | | X X | | 2 |
    | O X X X O | | X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 144 O: 121 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 31

    1. Rollout¹ 11/7* eq:-0.380
    Player: 36.00% (G:9.36% B:0.54%)
    Opponent: 64.00% (G:33.09% B:1.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.390..-0.371) - [94.9%]

    2. Rollout¹ 8/7* 6/3* eq:-0.393 (-0.012)
    Player: 37.34% (G:11.16% B:0.54%)
    Opponent: 62.66% (G:35.54% B:4.89%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.404..-0.382) - [5.1%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Aug 30 21:20:25 2023
    On 8/24/2023 8:50 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=---a-BDaB-BAbC---b-bc-bbA-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O    |   | O  O     O  O  X |
     | X           O    |   | O  O     O  O    |
     | X                |   |    O             |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   | X                |
     |                  |   | X                |
     | O     X     X    |   | X  X             |
     | O  X  X     X  O |   | X  X     O       |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 144  O: 119 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 31



    Race says bold, boards say safe, so no idea which way is up here. I'll
    hit and slot the bar with 11/7* and hope it's not a trip to BK.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Sep 27 07:53:34 2023
    On Saturday, August 26, 2023 at 9:31:52 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=---a-BDaB-BAbC---b-bc-bbA-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X X O | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 144 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 31
    With O having a four-point board, I thought that hitting loose in my
    board was too dangerous. But X is far behind in the pip count, so
    there is considerable upside to hitting twice if X is not hit back.

    1. Rollout¹ 8/7* 6/3* eq:-0.191
    Player: 47.60% (G:15.37% B:0.65%)
    Opponent: 52.40% (G:30.15% B:4.08%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.204..-0.178) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 11/7* eq:-0.229 (-0.038)
    Player: 46.16% (G:12.15% B:0.54%)
    Opponent: 53.84% (G:26.21% B:0.94%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.243..-0.214) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 10/7* 7/6 eq:-0.302 (-0.111)
    Player: 44.40% (G:12.40% B:0.63%)
    Opponent: 55.60% (G:27.60% B:1.25%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.313..-0.291) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 10/7* 6/5 eq:-0.334 (-0.143)
    Player: 44.36% (G:11.59% B:0.54%)
    Opponent: 55.64% (G:30.94% B:2.98%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.348..-0.320) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 11/10 6/3* eq:-0.430 (-0.238)
    Player: 40.71% (G:11.25% B:0.56%)
    Opponent: 59.29% (G:30.48% B:0.75%)
    Confidence: ±0.020 (-0.450..-0.409) - [0.0%]

    6. Rollout¹ 11/8 6/5 eq:-0.477 (-0.286)
    Player: 39.50% (G:8.68% B:0.42%)
    Opponent: 60.50% (G:23.72% B:0.32%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.490..-0.465) - [0.0%]

    7. Rollout¹ 10/7* 8/7 eq:-0.489 (-0.298)
    Player: 41.71% (G:10.60% B:0.55%)
    Opponent: 58.29% (G:33.12% B:3.09%)
    Confidence: ±0.019 (-0.509..-0.470) - [0.0%]

    8. Rollout¹ 8/5 8/7* eq:-0.501 (-0.310)
    Player: 39.94% (G:11.02% B:0.48%)
    Opponent: 60.06% (G:30.70% B:1.56%)
    Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.519..-0.484) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=---a-BDaB-BAbC----bbcbb-A-:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O O X |
    | X O | | O O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O X X | | X X | | 2 |
    | O X X X O | | X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 144 O: 121 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 31

    1. Rollout¹ 11/7* eq:-0.380
    Player: 36.00% (G:9.36% B:0.54%)
    Opponent: 64.00% (G:33.09% B:1.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.390..-0.371) - [94.9%]

    2. Rollout¹ 8/7* 6/3* eq:-0.393 (-0.012)
    Player: 37.34% (G:11.16% B:0.54%)
    Opponent: 62.66% (G:35.54% B:4.89%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.404..-0.382) - [5.1%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    I would have played 11/7* here. Part of the equation I'm speculating that makes 7* 3* correct is when things go fairly wrong for us the opponent never sends us a cube we can take. That inefficient cube may make the difference in the plays. If we put
    the cube on our side I suspect 11/7* is correct and with the opponent owning the cube we revert back to the blitz.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)