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  • Late-game 64 to play

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Aug 23 08:53:29 2023
    XGID=--BC-CCbB-B----------accf-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | 6 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 82 O: 61 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Aug 25 08:35:07 2023
    XGID=--BC-CCbB-B----------accf-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | 6 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 82 O: 61 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    XG's play of 10/4 8/4, volunteering a double shot, is startling at first glance. But the point is that if it turns into a straight race (let's
    say O rolls 54 next) then X is only about 50/50 to win, so he'd like to
    hit a shot if he can. 10/4 8/4 makes a five-point board, and if O hits
    (which she will if she can, except with a roll of 21), then X will
    usually get a direct shot. And even if O rolls big and doesn't hit,
    10/4 8/4 is a more efficient way to bear in for the race than 8/4 8/2.

    1. Rollout¹ 10/4 8/4 eq:+0.243
    Player: 54.74% (G:9.58% B:0.43%)
    Opponent: 45.26% (G:0.35% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.233..+0.252) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/2 eq:+0.165 (-0.078)
    Player: 56.01% (G:2.05% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 43.99% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.157..+0.174) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 10/4 5/1 eq:+0.137 (-0.106)
    Player: 53.31% (G:5.47% B:0.17%)
    Opponent: 46.69% (G:0.60% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.128..+0.145) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Aug 30 21:15:50 2023
    On 8/23/2023 8:53 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--BC-CCbB-B----------accf-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |                  |   |       O  O  O  O |
     |                  |   |          O  O  O |
     |                  |   |          O  O  O |
     |                  |   |                O |
     |                  |   |                6 |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   | X  X     X       |
     |       X     X  O |   | X  X     X  X    |
     |       X     X  O |   | X  X     X  X    |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 82  O: 61 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64


    Normally, a 20 pip deficit would imply maintaining contact, but with the
    gain of 10 pips this roll, and dinging O for all those checkers on the
    ace and deuce and open five and six points the race is almost even. So
    I'll just clear the ten point and hope to roll well.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Sep 27 07:39:18 2023
    On Friday, August 25, 2023 at 8:35:11 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--BC-CCbB-B----------accf-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | 6 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 82 O: 61 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64
    XG's play of 10/4 8/4, volunteering a double shot, is startling at first glance. But the point is that if it turns into a straight race (let's
    say O rolls 54 next) then X is only about 50/50 to win, so he'd like to
    hit a shot if he can. 10/4 8/4 makes a five-point board, and if O hits (which she will if she can, except with a roll of 21), then X will
    usually get a direct shot. And even if O rolls big and doesn't hit,
    10/4 8/4 is a more efficient way to bear in for the race than 8/4 8/2.

    1. Rollout¹ 10/4 8/4 eq:+0.243
    Player: 54.74% (G:9.58% B:0.43%)
    Opponent: 45.26% (G:0.35% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.233..+0.252) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/2 eq:+0.165 (-0.078)
    Player: 56.01% (G:2.05% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 43.99% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.157..+0.174) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 10/4 5/1 eq:+0.137 (-0.106)
    Player: 53.31% (G:5.47% B:0.17%)
    Opponent: 46.69% (G:0.60% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.128..+0.145) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    It should be noted just how awful the opp's position is when they aren't able to run both checkers freely or hit and pick up the inner board blot. All of those sequences the opponent will be facing a monster cube come our time to shake.

    Stick

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)