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  • Can't close my board

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Aug 22 08:08:22 2023
    XGID=aBABBBB-A----A-b-b-cBd--c-:2:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X O O | +---+
    | O O | | O X O O | | 4 |
    | | | O O O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X X X |
    | X | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 98 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, O own cube
    X to play 52

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Aug 24 08:49:10 2023
    XGID=aBABBBB-A----A-b-b-cBd--c-:2:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X O O | +---+
    | O O | | O X O O | | 4 |
    | | | O O O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X X X |
    | X | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 98 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, O own cube
    X to play 52

    13/8 has the advantage of creating a blocking point if we are hit, but I instead opted to play 13/6 in order to create more ways to cover my blot
    if I am missed. But XG hates my play. It seems that my back checkers
    are blocked in enough that I need to move one of them now, lest I regret
    it later. For example, if I play 13/6 and O dances, then 55 is a
    disaster for me, and 53 and 33 are very bad, too. By contrast, after
    20/18 13/8 and a dance, even my worst roll of 55 isn't terrible.

    1. Rollout¹ 20/18 13/8 eq:+0.637
    Player: 78.69% (G:19.73% B:0.31%)
    Opponent: 21.31% (G:6.06% B:0.19%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.631..+0.644) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 20/13 eq:+0.549 (-0.088)
    Player: 76.39% (G:19.83% B:0.35%)
    Opponent: 23.61% (G:9.03% B:0.23%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.544..+0.554) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:+0.520 (-0.117)
    Player: 74.67% (G:17.88% B:0.16%)
    Opponent: 25.33% (G:5.17% B:0.10%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.514..+0.526) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=aBABBBB-A----A-b-bBc-d--c-:2:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O O O | +---+
    | O O X | | O O O | | 4 |
    | | | O O O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X X X |
    | X | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 97 O: 98 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, O own cube
    X to play 52

    1. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:+0.696
    Player: 80.64% (G:20.95% B:0.17%)
    Opponent: 19.36% (G:5.21% B:0.09%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.692..+0.699) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 18/16 13/8 eq:+0.687 (-0.009)
    Player: 80.68% (G:20.05% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 19.32% (G:5.83% B:0.19%)
    Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.683..+0.690) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Aug 30 21:12:04 2023
    On 8/22/2023 8:08 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=aBABBBB-A----A-b-b-cBd--c-:2:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X     O     O    |   | O  X  O        O | +---+
     |       O     O    |   | O  X  O        O | | 4 |
     |                  |   | O     O        O | +---+
     |                  |   |       O          |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  | O |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   | X  X  X  X     X |
     |             X    |   | X  X  X  X  X  X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 101  O: 98 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, O own cube
    X to play 52

    Th usual thing to do is bring another checker into range. 13/6 aims two builders at the blot, meaning O has 11 shakes to hit while X has 24
    shakes to cover (assuming I counted right)

    QF says otherwise, so maybe making the midpoint or the eight point to
    block sixes and prevent the anti joker 62 is the bot play. But I'll play
    13/6.


    ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Sep 27 07:36:40 2023
    On Thursday, August 24, 2023 at 8:49:15 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=aBABBBB-A----A-b-b-cBd--c-:2:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X O O | +---+
    | O O | | O X O O | | 4 |
    | | | O O O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X X X |
    | X | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 101 O: 98 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, O own cube
    X to play 52
    13/8 has the advantage of creating a blocking point if we are hit, but I instead opted to play 13/6 in order to create more ways to cover my blot
    if I am missed. But XG hates my play. It seems that my back checkers
    are blocked in enough that I need to move one of them now, lest I regret
    it later. For example, if I play 13/6 and O dances, then 55 is a
    disaster for me, and 53 and 33 are very bad, too. By contrast, after
    20/18 13/8 and a dance, even my worst roll of 55 isn't terrible.

    1. Rollout¹ 20/18 13/8 eq:+0.637
    Player: 78.69% (G:19.73% B:0.31%)
    Opponent: 21.31% (G:6.06% B:0.19%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.631..+0.644) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 20/13 eq:+0.549 (-0.088)
    Player: 76.39% (G:19.83% B:0.35%)
    Opponent: 23.61% (G:9.03% B:0.23%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.544..+0.554) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:+0.520 (-0.117)
    Player: 74.67% (G:17.88% B:0.16%)
    Opponent: 25.33% (G:5.17% B:0.10%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.514..+0.526) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=aBABBBB-A----A-b-bBc-d--c-:2:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O O O | +---+
    | O O X | | O O O | | 4 |
    | | | O O O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X X X X |
    | X | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 97 O: 98 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, O own cube
    X to play 52
    1. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:+0.696
    Player: 80.64% (G:20.95% B:0.17%)
    Opponent: 19.36% (G:5.21% B:0.09%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.692..+0.699) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 18/16 13/8 eq:+0.687 (-0.009)
    Player: 80.68% (G:20.05% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 19.32% (G:5.83% B:0.19%)
    Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.683..+0.690) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    This is a case where we have enough covers anyway that we should focus on other issues we might have. When I say covers here I'm also including numbers that pick up the blot, so the non covering aces. [41 31 21 11] Overall that should make 2/3rds of
    the numbers next turn safety the checker.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)