• Containment: hit and then...?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Aug 21 08:01:20 2023
    XGID=-ABBaBC--CB--a--------cdf-:2:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O | +---+
    | | | O O O | | 4 |
    | | | O O O | +---+
    | | | O O |
    | | | 6 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | X X | | X X X X |
    | X X | | X X O X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 86 O: 56 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, O own cube
    X to play 51

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Aug 23 08:52:13 2023
    XGID=-ABBaBC--CB--a--------cdf-:2:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O | +---+
    | | | O O O | | 4 |
    | | | O O O | +---+
    | | | O O |
    | | | 6 |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | X X | | X X X X |
    | X X | | X X O X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 86 O: 56 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, O own cube
    X to play 51

    I thought it was too bold to leave the 4pt slotted and give O a double
    shot from the bar. But XG says it's okay. If O had a four-point board
    then it would be a different story (see variant).

    1. Rollout¹ 9/4* 6/5 eq:+0.530
    Player: 75.59% (G:12.76% B:0.34%)
    Opponent: 24.41% (G:3.49% B:0.01%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.525..+0.536) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 9/4* 4/3 eq:+0.455 (-0.076)
    Player: 73.21% (G:8.83% B:0.21%)
    Opponent: 26.79% (G:1.74% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.450..+0.459) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-ABBaBC--CB--a-------bcdd-:2:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O O | +---+
    | | | O O O O | | 4 |
    | | | O O O | +---+
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X |
    | X X | | X X X X |
    | X X | | X X O X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 86 O: 62 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, O own cube
    X to play 51

    1. Rollout¹ 9/4* 4/3 eq:+0.277
    Player: 67.17% (G:5.92% B:0.14%)
    Opponent: 32.83% (G:2.31% B:0.01%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.272..+0.282) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 9/4* 6/5 eq:+0.248 (-0.029)
    Player: 66.01% (G:8.84% B:0.21%)
    Opponent: 33.99% (G:5.75% B:0.03%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.243..+0.253) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)