From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Sat Aug 5 11:18:13 2023
XGID=--BbBaB-BBAAaa-a-b-cbAb-AA:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X O X |
| O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | X X O X |
| O X X X X | | X O X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43
XG's favorite 3 is to hit. That seemed too bold to me; after all,
O is anchored and our board isn't any stronger, and it leaves a ton
of blots. But O has a lot of blots too, so the upside is huge. In
fact, XG says that if O dances then X can cash.
1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 8/5* eq:+0.010
Player: 49.55% (G:19.87% B:1.43%)
Opponent: 50.45% (G:20.59% B:2.03%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.003..+0.024) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 11/8 eq:-0.208 (-0.218)
Player: 44.42% (G:13.15% B:0.70%)
Opponent: 55.58% (G:15.71% B:0.78%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.224..-0.191) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-----------
Gammon save
-----------
XGID=--BbBaB-BBAAaa-a-b-cbAb-AA:0:0:1:43:1:0:1:2:10
Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X O X |
| O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | X X O X |
| O X X X X | | X O X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 149 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 43
1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 8/5* eq:-0.422
Player: 49.11% (G:23.24% B:3.51%)
Opponent: 50.89% (G:20.19% B:4.80%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.430..-0.413) - [91.9%]
2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 11/8 eq:-0.430 (-0.008)
Player: 43.74% (G:15.32% B:1.75%)
Opponent: 56.26% (G:15.23% B:2.07%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.437..-0.422) - [8.1%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)