• Pick your favorite 3

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Aug 3 08:46:15 2023
    XGID=--BbBaB-BBAAaa-a-b-cbAb-AA:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O X O X |
    | O | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X | | X X O X |
    | O X X X X | | X O X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 149 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Aug 5 11:18:13 2023
    XGID=--BbBaB-BBAAaa-a-b-cbAb-AA:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O X O X |
    | O | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X | | X X O X |
    | O X X X X | | X O X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 149 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    XG's favorite 3 is to hit. That seemed too bold to me; after all,
    O is anchored and our board isn't any stronger, and it leaves a ton
    of blots. But O has a lot of blots too, so the upside is huge. In
    fact, XG says that if O dances then X can cash.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 8/5* eq:+0.010
    Player: 49.55% (G:19.87% B:1.43%)
    Opponent: 50.45% (G:20.59% B:2.03%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.003..+0.024) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 11/8 eq:-0.208 (-0.218)
    Player: 44.42% (G:13.15% B:0.70%)
    Opponent: 55.58% (G:15.71% B:0.78%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.224..-0.191) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -----------
    Gammon save
    -----------

    XGID=--BbBaB-BBAAaa-a-b-cbAb-AA:0:0:1:43:1:0:1:2:10

    Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O X O X |
    | O | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X | | X X O X |
    | O X X X X | | X O X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 149 O: 149 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 8/5* eq:-0.422
    Player: 49.11% (G:23.24% B:3.51%)
    Opponent: 50.89% (G:20.19% B:4.80%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.430..-0.413) - [91.9%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 11/8 eq:-0.430 (-0.008)
    Player: 43.74% (G:15.32% B:1.75%)
    Opponent: 56.26% (G:15.23% B:2.07%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.437..-0.422) - [8.1%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)