XGID=-aB-BaCB-----B----bbbcbbD-:1:1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O O O X |
| | | O X |
| | | X |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 166 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 51

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-aB-BaCB-----B----bbbcbbD-:1:1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O O O X |
| | | O X |
| | | X |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X X O | +---+ +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 166 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 51

---
Tim Chow

I'm playing to avoid gammon so I need to move my available checkers
closer to the home board. Let's just go with 13/7.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aB-BaCB-----B----bbbcbbD-:1:1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O O O X |
| | | O X |
| | | X |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 166 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 51

X is six-primed and he is probably going to die a slow death,
crunching his board while O casually brings her back checkers
around the board. His best chance is to act now to try to
force O to break her six-prime. By hitting with 13/8 6/5*,
he forces O to crack immediately with 33 or 11, and a few
other entering rolls fail to escape and might crack next
time. Leaving those blots might seem to risk losing more
gammons, but the thing is that X is already at high risk of
losing a gammon and so isn't risking that much more.

1. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/5* eq:-1.174
Player: 20.46% (G:2.84% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 79.54% (G:55.97% B:13.97%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-1.185..-1.163) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:-1.274 (-0.100)
Player: 13.42% (G:1.06% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 86.58% (G:53.59% B:7.58%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-1.281..-1.266) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)